On Thursday, the New York Knicks announced that all-star power forward Julius Randle would undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. It is an injury that has kept him out since 27th January, when he dislocated his shoulder against the Miami Heat. He took a hard fall after drawing a blocking foul on Jaime Jaquez Jr, which left him in serious pain. What makes it even harder for the Knicks to take is that there were just four-and-a-half minutes left in the game, and they were up 17 points.

There was initial hope that Randle could make a return before the end of the regular season, but after two months of trying to rehabilitate, this was no longer a possibility. He was warned by doctors that the continued instability in his shoulder made it unsafe to play and that surgery would be the best option to avoid permanent damage.

It is a brutal blow for a side who are certainly top contenders in the East when he is available. That is not to say they cannot be a force without him, especially in such a wide-open conference after the Boston Celtics, but their chances are certainly weakened.

Record with Randle

In late December, the Knicks traded for one of the best two-way players in OG Anunoby from the Toronto Raptors. They had made an excellent start with him in the side, and there was plenty of optimism how far a line-up consisting of him, Randle and Jalen Brunson could go. 

With both Randle and Anunoby in the line-up, the Knicks have a record of 14-2, which was the best in the league during this span. In these games, they also had a defensive rating of 104.1, again they were the top team in this statistic. The next best was the Cleveland Cavaliers with 104.2, but behind there was a huge jump to 110.8, which was the defensive rating of the Celtics. Their impressive 100.4 points allowed per game was also far superior to the rest.

Despite being unable to play in the game, Randle was named a 2024 all-star, thanks to his excellent displays throughout the first half of the season. In 46 games played, he averaged 24 points, with 9.2 rebounds and 5.0 assists. His overall record with the team was 29-17, which had them fourth at the time he went down.

Unfortunately for the Knicks, Anunoby is also absent with an injury.  He recently re-aggravated an elbow issue which has now kept him out since 16th March.  However, there is more positive news on this front, as head coach Tom Thibodeau is 'cautiously optimistic' in the forward's imminent return.

Coping in Randle's Absence

Although the Knicks have been without big pieces in Randle and Anunoby, as well as big man Mitchell Robinson, who had been out for the majority of the season with a foot injury, they have managed to stay afloat. Since Randle’s injury in late January, New York have a record of 16-14, but it has been enough to keep them in the top five of the conference.

They have been led by the brilliant play of point guard Brunson, who has averaged 30 points per game with 6.9 assists following Randle’s injury. Their defensive rating has worsened to 112.1, but this still places them ninth in league, which is testament to the balanced roster they possess. It must be noted that this is a far larger sample size, and is also significantly affected by the absence of Anunoby, so when he returns, this number should improve. The same can be said for the comeback of Robinson, who has recently returned, though is still on a minutes restriction. 

On the other side of the court, Randle alongside Brunson were the main scoring options.  With his usage needing to be replaced, it has allowed a number of other players to step up and take more of a load on the offensive end. Perhaps the greatest example of this is the play of Donte DiVincenzo. Prior to Randle’s injury, DiVincenzo averaged just 11.4 points per game on 8.7 field goal attempts. As his role increased, so did his numbers. In his 29 games since, his numbers have considerably improved to 21.4 points, taking 17.8 shots per game, more than doubling his stats in both categories. For a team that has stronger defensive qualities, the offensive output of DiVincenzo is crucial if the Knicks want to go far.

Eastern Conference Playoff Picture

With just six games remaining, the Knicks have a record of 45-31, which has them fifth in the Eastern Conference standings. As it stands, this would mean they are slated for a potential first round matchup with the Orlando Magic, though there is plenty of room for some movement despite so little time left.

The Magic are one place ahead of them by virtue of head-to-head, with Orlando winning two to the Knicks’ one. However, they are just half a game behind the third seed Cavaliers and two behind the second place Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have recently lost two games against the lowly Memphis Grizzlies and Washington Wizards, which has left them nervously looking over their shoulders, presenting a number of sides the opportunity to put some pressure on them. The Knicks themselves must be wary of the Indiana Pacers who trail them by 2.5 games, though they should be safe from a potential play-in scenario, barring an untimely collapse, with the Miami Heat three games back.

In the last six, New York will face some very important matchups which will determine their post-season journey. This includes a crucial fixture at the Bucks, which could inch them closer to their opponents. They also face three games against the Chicago Bulls, who have already clinched a play-in spot, and one against their city rivals Brooklyn Nets, who were eliminated from play-off contention last week. Their game against the Celtics could come at the perfect time, with the East’s leading team possibly resting players after wrapping up top spot.

One thing that may work in their favour is the strength of schedule for them, but also the teams around them. The Knicks should come into four of their last six as favourites, whilst the Bucks in particular face a tough finish. After they face the Toronto Raptors on Friday night, Milwaukee will play against five play-off teams. Considering they have struggled against poor teams, there is a real possibility they could fall further. This includes two games against the Magic, who are also in the mix for second. Perhaps the best case scenario for the Knicks would be for them to split those two games, which would allow them to gain ground and keep pace with both.

How the standings are, they are most likely to face one of these teams around them, with the Cavaliers, Magic, Bucks and Pacers all potential first round opponents. Even with the absence of Randle, the Knicks should feel very confident heading into a series against one of them. How far they progress afterwards would remain to be seen, but even with the injuries, the season is not yet lost for the franchise.

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