Despite the regular season winding to a close, the Western Conference play-off picture is still very unclear. There are up to 11 teams who are still in the hunt for post-season basketball. The number one seed is yet to be determined, and there are three teams battling for top spot with less than 10 games remaining. The fight to avoid the play-in is just as intense, with six teams competing for three positions.  Finally, there is an intriguing head-to-head for the final play-in position as the 10th seed.

Battle for Number One

Currently occupying top spot are the reigning champions Denver Nuggets, which is unsurprising given the quality the side has, including the likely Most Valuable Player in Nikola Jokic. However, it is the teams they are competing with which may raise a few eyebrows. Whilst there are a lot of big names in the West, it is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves who are in hot pursuit of the Nuggets. The Timberwolves are second, and face the Nuggets in a huge clash on Friday night.  A victory for Minnesota would see them leapfrog their opponents into first place as well as take one step closer to clinching the crucial tiebreaker. 

Watching intently will be the Thunder, who take on the Phoenix Suns at the same time, though are likely to be without Gilgeous-Alexander for the second game in a row. The young star guard has averaged 30.4 points this season, the third highest in the league, and is a serious candidate for MVP in the sixth season of his young career. They have the same record as the Timberwolves, just 0.5 games behind the Nuggets. If both the Thunder and Timberwolves win, the Nuggets would drop down to third, highlighting just how tight it is at the top of the standings. 

OKC hold the tiebreaker over the Nuggets and have tied the season series with the Timberwolves, which gives them a massive advantage.  After losing the first meeting of the season, they have beaten the Nuggets three times in a row, which is a very impressive achievement.  The Nuggets have lost just three times since the all-star break, but have not been able to create a cushion at the top, which is testament to the performance of their rivals. 

Whilst Oklahoma and Minnesota have minimal post-season experience within their ranks, their youth and athleticism will be enough to give any other team in the West plenty of issues. The Timberwolves have the league’s best defense, leading in both defensive rating and points allowed. The Thunder have excelled offensively, and are in the top three for points per game, field-goal percentage and three-point percentage.

Should they finish in the top two, there is a large possibility they will face some big players and teams in the first round.

Fight to Avoid play-in

When the play-in tournament was first introduced, there was a lot of scepticism, but the way in which it is playing out this season, it has been a very welcome addition. It has added a much needed competitiveness at this late stage of the campaign, and will produce some very tasty matchups in the build up to the playoffs. 

The standings are so congested that teams are switching places every night.  As it stands, the LA Clippers are fourth, with the New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks close behind.  The play-in consists of the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, LA Lakers and Golden State Warriors.

Prior to the all-star break, the Clippers were flying, and looked like they would join the top three in contesting for the top seed.  However, since the resumption of the league following the break, they have struggled mightily, and as a result they have been dragged back into the dogfight.  Since 22nd February, the Clippers have a 9-10 record, and are 4-6 in the last 10.  This means they are just half a game ahead of the Pelicans, and 2.5 in front of the Suns in seventh, who they still have to play twice down the final stretch. The Pelicans have recently lost Brandon Ingram, who will be missing for at least another week as he nurses a knee injury. Despite this, they have continued to perform in his absence, winning three of four.

One of the hottest teams in the league, the Mavericks, are just behind.  Luka Doncic is producing an MVP-level campaign alongside Kyrie Irving in the backcourt.  Doncic is the league’s leading scorer with 33.9 points per game, and they are riding a five-game winning streak. They have also just lost once in their last 10. With this momentum, they have fourth in their sights. 

Their next game is against fellow play-off hopefuls, the Kings. The Kings already lost to the Mavericks by 36 points earlier in the week, but will be hoping to avenge that defeat to get back on track. They are one game behind their opponents and could tie their record with victory. Sacramento are half a game below the Suns, who many tipped to be near the top of the conference before the season.

Riddled with injuries, the Suns have struggled with inconsistency as they navigate a brand new roster and coaching staff. Although they have the ‘big three’ of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, they have endured some unacceptable losses throughout the campaign, most notably against the 17-win San Antonio Spurs, who were missing Victor Wembanyama, as well as having some well-documented fourth quarter troubles.  However, they showed just how good they can be at their best, as they beat the Nuggets in the very next game. The Suns have defeated the Nuggets twice in Denver this season, one of just two teams to do so. One thing that is not in their favour is the fact they have by far the toughest schedule remaining of any team in the NBA. None of their remaining opponents sit below the eighth seed, though it can be argued this is perfect preparation for the play-offs. With the extreme talent they possess, particularly offensively, not many will want to face them in a one-off or seven-game series. 

Lebron James and the Lakers find themselves in ninth, but face the Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards in three of their next four, giving them an incredible opportunity to climb the standings. They have won five consecutive games, and will expect to extend that streak in the coming days. Trailing Phoenix by two games and Dallas by 2.5, the Lakers will be confident in closing the gap at the very least. 

Race for 10th

Not too long ago it seemed as if the top 10 was set, with the Warriors owning the final play-in position. But an unlikely resurgence from the Houston Rockets has made for a surprising and exciting end to the season. The Warriors have won two in a row, but have gone 5-5 in their last 10. They are now nervously looking over their shoulder at the Rockets who are one game behind. Houston, led by the red-hot Jalen Green, are winners of 10 in a row and do not look like slowing down at all. They face the Utah Jazz next as they look to cut it down to just half a game. Crucially, the two teams are due to face off in early April, which could be the decider. 

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In the month of March, Green has averaged 28.5 points and is a key component in the revival of his team. Even though they lost young star center Alperen Sengun to a severe ankle injury, the side have rallied to make a push for the play-in.

The Warriors enjoyed an improved run of form in February as they moved Klay Thompson to the bench. They had a record of 11-3, which helped them keep pace with the rest of the sides above them. However, they saw some regression in March, winning nine and losing seven. Their poor early season displays have meant they have been playing catch-up for the most part, and with the confident Rockets on their trail, it may end up being too much to overcome.