The NBA conducted its lottery today (May 17) to determine the top-14 picks in the 2016 NBA Draft. Things held true to form with no real surprises, which is fine because now is when the real surprises will really begin.
The worst team in the league, the Philadelphia 76ers, did get the first pick. All other picks followed suit probability-wise.
There are essentially two players in this class thought to be a franchise talent, so the Los Angeles Lakers are pretty pleased that they landed the No. 2 pick. Had L.A. fallen outside the top-three, they would have had to give the pick to Philly.
Let us take a look at the first of many mocks to come as we approach June’s draft.
1 Philadelphia 76ers - Ben Simmons - LSU
The Philadelphia 76ers have not put much together that resembles an actual team, and Sam Hinkie resigned as GM. The Sixers have some big bodies and are fairly loaded in the frontcourt with Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, and the injured Joel Embiid.
The 76ers will still select a power forward in Ben Simmons of LSU. It is unclear what the team will do with its plethora of talent at the 4/5-spots, but Simmons is too good to pass on. He has drawn comparisons to LeBron James, but the most appropriate comparison is likely Blake Griffin.
Like Griffin, he is powerful and should be able to ignite the fast break off his own rebounds. Simmons did not get the chance to shine in the NCAA Tournament, which is a pity because it would have been some nice exposure for him. Even missing out on the tournament, GMs are confident he is a franchise player. The Sixers will then begin trying to make moves to balance its roster a little better and add some backcourt help.
2 Los Angeles Lakers - Brandon Ingram - Duke
Brandon Ingram is the best fit for the L.A. Lakers and he is also likely to be passed on by the 76ers. The Lakers need a high scoring wing player, and Ingram can be just that. He is a natural scorer, very long and difficult to contend with in the mid-range. He can be a lot like either a Kevin Durant or Tracy McGrady, a player whose skill set only enhances his length and makes him that much more difficult for defenses to deal with.
The Lakers will have the beginnings of a nice frontcourt with Julius Randle alongside Ingram at the 4-spot. L.A. still likely has a few tough seasons ahead of it, even if the Lakers land a big free agent with its $60 million in cap room this summer. Ingram is a franchise talent in his own right and the Lakers will feel less pressure in free agency knowing it has one of the two premier talents in the 2016 draft.
3 Boston Celtics - Dragan Bender - Croatia
The Boston Celtics will have a tough choice to make and the No. 3 pick begins the most intriguing part of this year’s draft. Dragan Bender makes a nice choice because the Boston Celtics are fairly stacked at point guard and on the wing. Bender could prove an eventual upgrade on the likes of Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk. Until he is acclimated to the NBA he can wait in the wings behind those current Celtics, but the payout for Bender could be huge in time.
Bender is a 7-footer likely to start his career at the 4-spot, but he could eventually add the bulk to play center (he is just 220 pounds right now). Bender seems perfect for this era of NBA basketball given his immense skills and shooting acumen. He’s quick enough to play the 4-spot with no problems and could be the next great stretch-4. Boston will have to decide to pass on Kris Dunn and Buddy Hield to make this pick. Bender is good enough to make it worth it.
4 Phoenix Suns - Buddy Hield - Oklahoma
Buddy Hield is the most NBA-ready scorer in this draft, and though the Phoenix Suns have a glut of talent on the perimeter, it is too hard not to go “best available” with this pick.
Hield will bring immediate scoring punch, but it is also likely that the Suns seek to balance the roster through some trades.
Its best three players all are guards (Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, and Devin Booker), while the Suns really do not have proven talents at the 4/5 spots. Both Mirza Teletovic and Alex Len are decent players, but the Suns are likely going to have to trade one of its guards for an immediate upgrade in the frontcourt. In the meantime, with this pick, the Suns will just get the best talent available and begin to tinker more in free agency and via trades.
5 Minnesota Timberwolves - Kris Dunn - Providence
A lot of people would object to picking Kris Dunn on the grounds that the Timberwolves already have Ricky Rubio, but Dunn could be far better than Rubio. And it might not take that long. The 6’4” point guard from Providence had a coming-out party in the NCAA tournament and it is possible that he goes as high as No. 3 overall. If he falls to Minnesota at No. 5, the Wolves will be fairly ecstatic to put such a playmaker on a roster already featuring Andrew Wiggins and 2016 Rookie of the Year Karl-Anthony Towns.
Dunn could go on to be the third ROY winner on this team. He is that good. The Wolves could field a lineup of Dunn, Zach LaVine, Wiggins, Towns and Gorgui Dieng. Rubio is signed through the 2018-19 season, but if he was shopped the Wolves might be able to add some depth behind Dieng to further fortify the frontcourt rotation. The Wolves could also keep Rubio around for mentorship of Dunn.
6 New Orleans Pelicans - Jamal Murray - Kentucky
The New Orleans Pelicans really turned in a stinker of a season, and perhaps the only player on the roster that is really necessarily a centerpiece is Anthony Davis. Eric Gordon is off the books, as is Tyreke Evans. Three-point marksman Ryan Anderson also is a free agent. What the Pelicans can seek to do is add Jamal Murray both for his scoring and because he is an upgrade over Evans as a future 3-man.
Murray is just 6’4”, but with lineups trending smaller he may be able to play the 1, 2 and 3 spots. The Pelicans can really push the reset button behind two talented Wildcats in Davis and Murray. It makes as much sense as anything else after a 30-52 season. New Orleans crashed the playoffs in 2015, but this year was such a setback as to cause the entire situation to be reevaluated.
7 Denver Nuggets - Jaylen Brown - California
The Denver Nuggets have a nice collection of young talent and could be on the rise in the Western Conference in a short time. Emmanuel Mudiay showed immense promise as a team leader and point guard, and the Nuggets have a couple of high scoring swingmen in Gary Harris and Will Barton. Kenneth Faried is still a tough rebounder ate the 4-spot, and sophomore center Jusuf Nurkic and rookie forward Nikola Jokic both proved to be very skilled big men. Jokic had a standout rookie season playing behind the second-year Nurkic. So where do the Nuggets go with this pick with a fairly balanced roster?
The most logical thing may be to simply take the best available here, and that is 6’6” swingman Jaylen Brown of California. He is a top-notch athlete and a really strong player who can get physical with other guards. He makes smart plays and should be a naturally gifted offensive player who will fit in great on the Nuggets. If Denver can find a taker for Danilo Gallinari, then Brown would have a starting role catered for his skill-set. Gallinari has a lot of value and the young Nuggets would get younger still.
8 Sacramento Kings - Jakob Poeltl - Utah
After firing the first-year coach George Karl it has to apparent to the Sacramento Kings that there is something much more problematic with its team than simply not having enough talent. Nearly every year the Kings look good on paper, and the result is nothing more than trips to the lottery. What can Sacramento do to set its fate? Is it possible to thrive with the talented but troubled DeMarcus Cousins at the 5-spot? His talent is undeniable, but so is the fact that the Kings have largely gone nowhere his entire career. Some of that blame surely must be his.
Sacramento accordingly can really go any direction with this pick, given that the roster may be on the verge of utter implosion. One route that would make sense is drafting Jakob Poeltl and developing him with the thought of eventually selling Cousins off for a bounty of a rebuilding package.
The Kings are not blessed with a great pick here and there is a bit of a chasm here between the top-seven already taken and Poeltl. He should be a strong starting-caliber big, but he certainly is not to be thought of an upgrade on Cousins. It is merely that Sacramento cannot continue to spin its wheels in the dirt with a team that is not gelling nor working on any real level.
9 Toronto Raptors - Brice Johnson- North Carolina
This pick on some levels is a bit of a reach. It is also as early as possible to begin speculating on these picks, and there are guys who will climb the draft board.
North Carolina Tar Heel Brice Johnson is not expected to go until later in the lottery (or even out of it altogether in some mocks), but the Raptors would be wise to consider him. He is a great fit for their current team as a guy who can bring both defense and scoring to the roster, while being one of the best athletes at forward in this draft. Part of what hurts Johnson is that he was a four-year player, but the Raptors are not scared off by his 22 years of age (he turns 22 in June).
That only means he will be NBA ready, and the Raptors do have something of a hole at the 4-spot where they started the ancient Luis Scola this season.
Johnson is a lot like current player Patrick Patterson, but his upside is a good bit higher and he is more gifted defensively. Johnson is a natural basketball player and the game seems to come very easy to him. With Johnson, DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas in, the Raptors would have a formidable defensive frontcourt. It only makes sense to take the most NBA ready player given that Toronto is in the midst of quasi-contention in the Eastern Conference and currently battling the Cleveland Cavaliers for the right to be in the NBA Finals.
10 Milwaukee Bucks - Dejounte Murray - Washington
The Milwaukee Bucks will not be looking for a starter with this pick. Its current starting five is strong, with capable and gifted players at each position. “So why did Milwaukee miss the playoffs so badly?” would be the question asked. That is difficult to determine.
The Bucks went from being a top-5 defensive team in 2015 to one of the worsts in 2016, and did so with largely the same roster. Milwaukee’s identity is carved by its huge frontcourt, but the Bucks’ best player Khris Middleton is a consummate 2-guard. Milwaukee may seek to add a young point guard to give it another option if Michael Carter-Williams struggles (or fails to improve, really).
The optimal pick could end up being the top point guard on the board, then, 6’5” combo guard Dejounte Murray of Washington.
Murray is not really a true point guard, but the Bucks also like to run Giannis Antetokounmpo as a giant point-forward frequently. That means adding a big scorer like Murray might make a lot of sense. The Bucks entire approach to the game is slightly unorthodox, but Middleton and Jerryd Bayless are the only real solid marksmen on the team and Murray would give the Bucks another coveted shooter.
11 Orlando Magic - Skal Labissiere - Kentucky
The Orlando Magic could really use a young version of what the team already had in Channing Frye. Scott Skiles even used Andrew Nicholson in an attempt to get some shooting from the 4-spot, and Nicholson’s future in the NBA is hazy at best.
Skal Labissiere of Kentucky is the answer here for the Magic because he is a better defender than either Nicholson or Frye, and he is also younger. He is the prototype of what the Magic need.
Orlando currently has no head coach following the resignation of Skiles, but GM Rob Hennigan has put together a nice collection of young talent. Labissiere is unlikely to be more than a role player, but he does have his upside to be sure given his natural skill set, shooting ability and age. The Magic will not really be rolling the dice here in any real sense, and if Orlando is not wow-ed by any of the prospects it could easily deal this pick and whatever else to add a much-needed veteran.
12 Utah Jazz - Malik Beasley - Florida State
The dearth of point guards in this draft really hurts the Utah Jazz. Utah has a few good players at the 1 in Shelvin Mack, Dante Exum and Trey Burke. None of them necessarily have proven to be the ultimate answer, though. The Jazz have more capable players at all other positions, and the frontcourt features three big minutes players. The Jazz really do not need any help at the 3/4/5 positions. A combo guard would make perfect sense, but both Jamal and Dejounte Murray, as well as Kris Dunn, are all likely to be off the board.
The Jazz could seek to deal this pick or even trade up to get a guy that actually fills a need. Without some jostling, it is really hard to guess what Utah may seek to do here at No. 12 overall. If they keep the pick some guys who will be on the radar include Malik Beasley, Denzel Valentine and Caris LeVert.
We will role the dice and say the Jazz go with Beasley. He has drastically improved his stock and could continue to rise up the draft boards as he begins working out for teams in private workouts. Beasley is a natural scorer and is 6’5” so he will be able to play the 2 and 3 spots in the NBA. He has a high learning curve and is only getting better. The Jazz have a similar player already in Alec Burks, but there is no reason not to add the best scoring guard on the board at this pick.
13 Phoenix Suns - Domantas Sabonis - Gonzaga
We already had the Suns spend its first lottery pick on Buddy Hield. Now it is time to draft a big man to complement its array of talents on the perimeter. Domantas Sabonis is the pick do that. He adds offense behind Alex Len at center, and is a gifted player on the blocks much like his legendary father Arvydas.
Sabonis will play at the 4-spot a good bit initially, but he may grow a little more. His skills make him too hard to pass on and the Suns do not really have any legitimate post presences, so he fills a need a swell. Sabonis is a great pick and roll center too, which will be a nice asset with so many premier perimeter players in need of solid screens. Sabonis would be a perfect fit on this roster, all things considered.
14 Chicago Bulls - Marquese Chriss - Washington
The Chicago Bulls could lose both Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol to free agency this summer. It is perhaps even likely that Gasol leaves. The Bulls took 6’10” forward Bobby Portis of Arkansas last year, and it will draft big again because the frontcourt shelves must stay stocked. Portis and Taj Gibson will be the key fixtures defensively, and sharpshooter Nikola Mirotic is also in the rotation. Chriss simply adds another blade to Fred Holberg’s swiss army knife assortment of big men.
Chriss will not turn 19 until July, so he is obviously still a good bit away from maturation as a player and could even grow a couple more inches. He has a 7’1” wingspan at 6’10” and is a supreme athlete. He falls to the late lottery because is pretty raw, and no doubt some Bulls fans will compare him to the failed experiment that was once Tyrus Thomas.
There is no real way to know whether he becomes an absolute monster, or, the next Tyrus Thomas. But it is worth rolling the dice at No. 14 overall.