While there was surprisingly little change among the top ten in the ATP Race to London last week, that does not mean that it did not have a big effect on who could qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals next month. One more spot is gone, meaning only four more men can qualify, and strong results from some outsiders means that the chase pack is tightening. With one of the two final Masters 1000 events taking place this week, expect the drama to increase exponentially as the Race to London enters its final month.
Race Update
Raonic Qualifies
Going into last week, there were five spots still available for the men hoping to qualify for London. Now there’s four. Milos Raonic wrapped up his spot at the ATP World Tour Finals by reaching the semifinals in Beijing. The fourth man to qualify, Raonic will be making his second appearance at the O2, having previously qualified in 2014. He could not have clinched at a better time, as an ankle injury forced him to pull out of that Beijing semifinal. While he is playing Shanghai this week, there is no pressure on the Canadian to play additional matches now that his spot is guaranteed.
Shake-up Among the Chasers
The only change among the top eight was Rafael Nadal, who entered last week in eighth, leapfrogging Dominic Thiem. Nadal only reached the quarterfinals in Beijing, but Thiem went down in the first round, meaning that the Spaniard, who previously trailed the youngest man in the top ten by five points, is now 85 points up in seventh place, leaving Thiem in the dangerous final qualification spot.
Tomas Berdych, currently in ninth, had a chance to enter the top eight had he won the title in Tokyo, but he fell in the first round, failing to gain any ground on a qualifying spot. Tenth place Marin Cilic played some good tennis in Tokyo, but his semifinal performance did little to help his bid as he only closed the gap by 180 points, still sitting nearly 700 back.
The big movers over the week came out of Tokyo, as the finalists, David Goffin and champion Nick Kyrgios, boosted their outside bids to qualify based on their strong performances. While runner-up Goffin did not move up in rankings, his 300 points moved him to within 800 points of the eighth and final spot, which is striking distance this week. Kyrgios, who didn’t seem at all close to qualifying prior to Tokyo, jumped two spots up to 12th and is also within 800 points of Thiem. If he continues to build momentum after this run in Tokyo, his outside chance may not be as big of a long-shot as it seemed a week ago.
Lastly, a runner-up performance in Beijing launched Grigor Dimitrov into the top sixteen, although he is still a long way back of qualifying. The Bulgarian is currently just over 1300 points back of Thiem for the final spot. Another poor result from Roberto Bautista Agut has seen the Spaniard fall out of the top sixteen.
This Week’s Action
Shanghai Rolex Masters
There is only one tournament on the schedule this week, with 1000 points up for grabs in Shanghai. All but two of the top sixteen are in action, including the four men who have already qualified and the eight closest men on the outside looking in. Two men currently in qualifying spots, Kei Nishikori and Dominic Thiem, are being forced to put their spots at risk as illness and injury are forcing both to skip the tournament. Nishikori is safe, as he sits fifth, almost 1500 points ahead of ninth-place Berdych meaning he cannot fall out of the top eight this week. Thiem, however, is in danger. He only leads Berdych by 335 points.
Four men could potentially move into qualifying positions with good results in Beijing. With Thiem inactive, Berdych, Cilic, Goffin and Kyrgios all control their own fates in that the man they are chasing cannot defend himself. A semifinal would be enough for Berdych to climb into eighth. A runner-up appearance could see him jump to seventh, with the best case scenario being a jump to sixth with a title.
Cilic, Goffin and Kyrgios all need titles to enter the top eight, meaning only one of them could move into a qualifying spot this week. A title could potentially see Cilic jump as high as sixth depending on Rafael Nadal and Gael Monfils’ results. With the title, Goffin or Kyrgios could jump as high as seventh, depending on Nadal’s results. Cilic, Kyrgios and Berdych are all in the same half of the draw, meaning only one of them can reach the final. That half of the draw also includes Nadal and world number one Novak Djokovic. Kyrgios and Berdych are on a third-round collision course in Djokovic’s quarter, while Cilic could face Nadal in the quarters. It is very possible, if not probable, that all three will fail to gain significant ground in Shanghai.
Thanks to that draw, Monfils is safe for another week. The worst that could happen would be falling to seventh (if he loses early and either Berdych wins the title or Nadal reaches the semis). Nadal needs to make the quarterfinals to guarantee that he stays the top eight for another week. The only way he could fall out of the top eight would be if he failed to reach the last eight and Goffin beat Berdych in the final. Should that happen, he would fall to ninth, with Thiem falling to 10th while Goffin jumps to eighth, Berdych to seventh. However, given both men’s extremely difficult draws, this seems like a very unlikely scenario.
It’s going to be a wild week in Shanghai. The London hopefuls have been given extremely difficult draws, so they will need to step up if they hope to qualify. The others could suffer devastating blows to their campaigns at this big event.