With the US Open now over, the ATP World Tour heads down the final stretch. The rankings that really matter now are the year-to-date rankings, which will decide who qualifies for the ATP World Tour Finals in London. But coming out of the year’s final major, both the official rankings and the Race to London do not completely reflect how players are currently performing on the tour.
There were a handful of surprises in New York and throughout the summer. As we head into the final stretch of the ATP World Tour season, here are the power rankings based on the player’s current form after the summer.
20. Nick Kyrgios
After starting off his summer well with a title in Atlanta, Nick Kyrgios quickly collapsed with a major upset loss in Canada to hometown teen Denis Shapovalov. Poor performances in Cincinnati and New York followed, with the latter ending with his retirement. He’ll be looking for a bounce back in the fall, which could be tough if he’s struggling with health and motivation.
19. Richard Gasquet
The ups-and-downs of Richard Gasquet continue. After a strong season in 2015, he has not accomplished much of note this year apart from reaching the quarterfinals of the French Open and a title in February. He had a disastrous summer and does not appear to be in great form heading down the stretch.
18. Roberto Bautista Agut
Roberto Bautista Agut, while not making any shockwaves over the summer, is still a very consistent player on hard courts. He may not win any big titles down the stretch, but is also capable of taking advantage of an easy draw if he gets one.
17. David Ferrer
The energizer bunny finally seems to be burning out. David Ferrer has had no results of note this year and stumbled through the summer. However, he does tend to do well in the fall, with his lone Masters 1000 title coming in November in Paris (back in 2012). He also won two titles in October last year. While he will be hard-pressed to repeat the result, this provides reason to believe he could play some good tennis down the stretch.
16. Tomas Berdych
Tomas Berdych currently resides in the top ten of the actual rankings, but an appendicitis kept him out of the US Open, which makes him a wildcard down the stretch. How much he will be able to contend is a massive question mark.
15. Ivo Karlovic
Ivo Karlovic had maybe the best summer apart from the top guns. He reached three finals, winning two of them and reached the round of sixteen at the US Open for the first time. He now heads to a part of the season where the courts play faster and his monstrous serve because even harder to return. Watch out.
14. Lucas Pouille
There may not be a player facing more pressure to prove themselves than Lucas Pouille coming out of the US Open. The Frenchman’s win over Rafael Nadal sent shockwaves through the tennis world. And while it’s bought him some good will for now, he will need to continue playing at that level if he wants to continue his climb up the rankings.
13. David Goffin
There is not much to say about David Goffin except that he is still around. He has not put up any results of note and crashed out early in New York. But the Belgian is still within striking distance of the top eight in the Race to London. He’s done well before on the indoor courts of Europe, so if he can refind some of that grinding consistency he is known for, maybe he can make a late charge.
12. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Considering he’s a former major finalist and top-ten mainstay, Tsonga has slipped out the minds of most pundits lately. He has not put up many results of note lately, but snuck under the radar into the last eight in New York. Unfortunately, his run ended with his retirement. But if he gets healthy for the fall, he’s done well in the past on the indoor courts of Europe and could be a threat.
11. Grigor Dimitrov
One of the biggest surprises of the summer was surely Grigor Dimitrov’s comeback. After nearly two years of poor results and falling into tennis obscurity, the former highly-touted young gun roared back into relevance with a quarterfinal run in Toronto, followed by the semifinals of Cincinnati. He wrapped up his summer by reaching the fourth round at the US Open, his best run since last year’s Australian Open. It seems as though the Bulgarian is putting the pieces back together.
10. Juan Martin del Potro
All that being said about Dimitrov, has there been a better story all summer, or even all year on the ATP World Tour, than the comeback of Juan Martin del Potro? The former US Open champion made yet another comeback from wrist surgery, and after an okay first few months, the Argentinian caught fire this summer, claiming a silver medal at the Olympics before reaching the quarterfinals of the US Open in only his second major appearance since 2014. The former world number four seems to be shaking off the rust fairly quickly and it’s hard to imagine he will stay out of the top 60, or even top 20, for long.
9. Dominic Thiem
The youngest member of the top ten has been his own worst enemy this summer. Or at least his body has. Two of his last three events have ended with him retiring from a match. While he did at least reach the fourth round in New York, he retired. He also only played five games in Toronto before retiring there. The health struggles date back to Wimbledon. If he hopes to make a charge in the final and qualify for London, he’s going to need to get healthy first.
8. Marin Cilic
The Cincinnati champion did not have the best summer, crashing out in the third round of the US Open, which he won two years ago. He also crashed out early at the Rogers Cup and Olympics. However, he did win his first career Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati. Marin Cilic ranks so highly for two reasons. 1) he’s healthy. 2) The speedy hard courts that await in Asia and Europe should work well for his powerful serve and groundstrokes.
7. Rafael Nadal
Remember back in the spring when it looked like Rafael Nadal was on his way back to his championship form and was considered to be a genuine favourite at the French Open? Amazing what a few months does. The wrist injury the Spaniard suffered in Paris shut him down for two months and his form has not recovered. After a collapse at the Olympics, where he fell in the bronze medal match, he lost early to lower ranked opponents in Cincinnati and New York. Unlike most of the players on this list, the outlook is bleak for Nadal, as he has often struggled after the US Open. He has only ever won three events after the US Open, with the last one coming back in 2010. He will be in a dog fight just to qualify for the ATP World Tour finals.
6. Milos Raonic
It’s hard not to look at this summer as a bit of a missed opportunity for Milos Raonic. The Canadian was humbled in the quarterfinals of his hometown tournament in Toronto despite being the number four seed. He did well to reach the semifinals of Cincinnati, before his third loss in four tournaments to Andy Murray. Raonic had a chance to climb to number three in the world at the US Open, but crashed out amidst a set of cramps in the second round. He has now pulled out of Canada’s Davis Cup playoff this weekend. The good news for Raonic is that he has almost no points to defend for the rest of the season. A good title defence in St. Petersburg next week would put him in a great position to make a charge up the rankings on the fast hard courts that work so well with his power game.
5. Gael Monfils
Gael Monfils has always been a bit of an enigma on the tour. He has tons of talent, but rarely seemed able to use it. This summer was one of those times when he showed what he’s capable of. The Frenchman won a title in Washington before charging into the semifinals of Toronto the following week. At the US Open, he did not drop a set on his way to the semifinals, where he took a set off of defending champion Novak Djokovic. While he continues to be erratic, the fast hard courts of the fall could give him a chance to start to claim some big wins. Three of his six career titles have come after the US Open, as did his first Masters 1000 final (on home soil in Paris).
4. Kei Nishikori
The former US Open runner-up had one of the best summers of his career. Nishikori started off by reaching the final of the Rogers Cup, beating soon-to-be US Open champion Stan Wawrinka on the way, and topping Rafael Nadal for the bronze medal at the Olympics. He closed out his summer with a semifinal run in New York, his best major performance since reaching the US Open final in 2014. The Japanese is trending in the right direction as he heads towards his home soil in Asia, where he has always performed well. He also has a good history on the indoor courts of Europe. Nishikori may be peaking just in time for a powerhouse finish.
3. Stan Wawrinka
After a fairly quiet, unimpressive summer, Wawrinka bounced back in the perfect way at the US Open, roaring to a third major title. The same old question must now be asked of the Swiss: can he keep up that form outside of major finals? The Swiss is 3-0 in major finals and has not lost a final in three years, but getting to the final has been troublesome. He struggled during the summer, both with form and health, and while he recovered in New York, he needs to prove that he can keep that form up during the regular events. So he stays at number three until he puts up more consistent results.
2. Andy Murray
Andy Murray hangs on to the number two spot because of his consistency. The Scot had his finals streak snapped at the US Open after having reached the final of his last seven events, winning four of them including Wimbledon and the Olympic gold medal. While this was a big blow to his dream of reaching number one, he has still been arguably the most consistent player on the tour all year (at least the most consistent player since May). He’s had good runs in the past in the final stretch of the season, particularly in Asia, and will hope to refind his form and make one more charge at number one.
1. Novak Djokovic
The current world number one actually has not had a great three months. Ever since completing his career Grand Slam at the French Open in June, Djokovic has not been his best. Of the five events on his schedule, he withdrew from one and crashed out early in two of them, including a stunning third-round loss to end his calendar year Grand Slam bid at Wimbledon and a first round loss to deny him a career Golden Slam at the Olympics. He also withdrew from Cincinnati, which cost him a shot at the career Golden Masters. His lone title came over a depleted field in Toronto and his summer ended with a tough loss in the US Open final. Injuries have also dogged the world number one throughout the summer.
The fact remains, though, that Djokovic is number one in the world for a reason. Despite not being all that impressive in New York (don’t forget, three of his wins were courtesy of opponents’ injuries), he still managed to increase his lead in the Race to London. He’s also entering a part of the season where he is very strong. He is defending the title at all three big events and always plays well in the fall. If there is a place for him to bounce back, it’s on the hard courts of Asia and Europe.