Next week is the last chance for players to gain any form or momentum on clay, heading into the second Grand Slam of the year at the French Open. Four of the world’s top 20 players arrive in Geneva, with Stan Wawrinka and David Ferrer the top two seeds in the draw. Defending champion Thomaz Bellucci faces the challenge of defending his title as a non-seed.
First Quarter
Top seed Wawrinka heads the first quarter, and is surely aiming of gaining some momentum going into his title defense after lifting last year’s Roland Garros crown. He receives a bye into round two where he’s likely to face Albert Ramos-Vinolas who faces Teymuraz Gabashvili first up. Philipp Kohlschreiber is the most likely to test Wawrinka in this section, and must overcome Inigo Cervantes in round one, with another Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta likely to be his next opponent.
World number four Wawrinka will hope to get wins under his belt, but it’s likely he’ll exit before the latter rounds to preserve some energy for what could be a huge fortnight for him. Even without an eye on the French Open, his form has been patchy of late, and Kohlschreiber has looked strong recently after winning the title in Munich. The fifth-seeded German will like his chances of going far at another clay event.
Projected quarterfinal: Stan Wawrinka - Philipp Kohlschreiber
Quarterfinal prediction: Kohlschreiber d. Wawrinka
Second Quarter
John Isner is the top seed in the second quarter, and the American arrives at the event after not playing since Houston in April. The fourth seed’s draw appears kind, with a bye at the first stage leading to a clash with Lukas Rosol or a qualifier. His biggest test before the semifinals could be from seventh seed Steve Johnson, but the 26-year-old has not won a match since March and is yet to taste success on clay in 2016. He faces veteran Mikhail Youzhny in an intriguing first round, with the victor projected to meet either Dudi Sela or Andrey Kuznetsov in the second round. The pair each hold a win over the other, but Kuznetsov won their most recent meeting at the Australian Open earlier year this, giving him the edge in this encounter.
Isner will be pleased with his projected draw, with his quarterfinal opponent not straightforward to predict. Kuznetsov’s form in 2016 has been quite bright, and he could continue this form by reaching the quarterfinals here.
Projected quarterfinal: John Isner - Andrey Kuznetsov
Quarterfinal prediction: Isner d. Kuznetsov
Third Quarter
The third section of the Geneva Open draw appears to be the toughest to call, with a semifinalist from last year, Federico Delbonis, likely to face the defending champion Bellucci in round two. Delbonis opens up against the returning Janko Tipsarevic, whilst Bellucci starts his defense against the tricky Mikhail Kukushkin. These players are not even the top stars in the quarter, as third seed Marin Cilic starts his preparation for Roland Garros with a first tournament since Miami in March. The Croatian will play his second round match against either Ernests Gulbis or Ricardas Berankis, desperate to improve on his lack of match-time.
This lack of match-time from Cilic should not affect him immediately here, with a favorable first match heading into the last eight. His opponent in the quarterfinals is wide open, but Tipsarevic’s fitness is doubtful due to consistent trouble with injuries. This should be enough to make a case for Delbonis, with his second round clash against either Kukushkin or Bellucci likely to be a cracker. The Brazilian "bagelled" world number one Novak Djokovic in Rome this week, and any similar form could see him successfully defend his 2015 title.
Projected quarterfinal: Thomaz Bellucci - Marin Cilic
Quarterfinal prediction: Bellucci d. Cilic
Fourth Quarter
David Ferrer features as the highest ranked player in the final section and looks likely to progress through a comfortable draw. After receiving a bye into round two, his first opponent is expected to be Denis Istomin, with the man from Uzbekistan not favoring playing on clay throughout his career. Sam Querrey is the eighth seed in Geneva, but faces a tough opener against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, despite holding a 5-0 head-to-head record against the Spaniard. Their five previous meetings have only ever been on a hard court, and the clay is likely to increase Garcia-Lopez’s chances of recording a first victory over the American. The winner of the clash is expected to have too much for either Rajeev Ram or a qualifier in the second round, leading to the last eight.
Second seed Ferrer is always tough to beat, and this probability decreases when the surface facing him on is clay. It’s difficult to see the diminutive Spaniard exiting before the last eight, with a meeting against compatriot Garcia-Lopez looming for a place in the semifinals. The pair met in Rome this week with Ferrer winning 6-4, 6-3.
Projected quarterfinal: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - David Ferrer
Quarterfinal prediction: Ferrer d. Garcia-Lopez
Final stage predictions:
Semifinals:
Kohlschreiber d. Isner – The pair have met seven times previously, and the German has won three of the last four. Isner’s lack of match sharpness may eventually catch up with him.
Ferrer d. Bellucci – The defending champion’s brave defense will end in a semifinal defeat to Ferrer, who needs a title to quiet down any doubters.
Final:
Ferrer d. Kohlschreiber