It is the final week before the U.S. Open gets underway with some big names headed to the Winston-Salem Open in search of some better form. Gilles Simon and Kevin Anderson are the top two seeds this week.
Top Seeds in Winston-Salem
There is a delicate balance between form and fatigue that some may have to weigh as the week goes on. In Winston-Salem, the top four seeds this week are Gilles Simon, Kevin Anderson, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Viktor Troicki. For Simon, it is his first year playing here and he could use the match play. Simon is just 1-2 through the Montreal and Cincinnati swing. Anderson got a few wins under his belt last week in Cincinnati as he advanced to the third round with wins over Leonardo Mayer and Jack Sock before losing to Roger Federer in the third round. Tsonga was strong in trying to defend his 2014 Rogers Cup title as he made the quarters in Montreal, but slumped with a first-up loss to Fernando Verdasco in Cincinnati. Troicki continued his poor form since blowing a two set lead in Davis Cup play in July. He is 0-3 on the North American hard court swing with losses to Sam Groth, Mikhail Youzhny, and Mardy Fish.
There are 16 seeds in this 48 player field with all seeds getting a first round bye. Having a top seed here means very little with the highest seed to win the tournament in its brief history being John Isner as a three seed in 2012. The top two seeds have never made the final, so that is bad news for Simon and Anderson. Of the remaining 12 seeds outside the top four, Sam Querrey is the one who has played here the most. He is 10-3 with semifinal showings the last three years. Querrey is seeded seventh this year. Sixteenth seeded Jerzy Janowicz is the only seeded player to have made a Final at this event. He did that last year as an unseeded player. Last year's Champion, Lukas Rosol, is here to defend the title as an unseeded player.
First Quarter
The top half of the quarter will see Gilles Simon open against Aljaz Bedene or a qualifier. The field of qualifiers has some solid talent who could spring an upset or two. The likes of Frances Tiafoe, Ryan Harrison, Martin Klizan and Pierre Hugues-Herbert are all in the mix in the final round of qualifying on Sunday. That could make for a tricky out for someone in the draw. Marcos Baghdatis is the seed opposite of Simon in this half as the fourteenth seed. Baghdatis opens with Sergiy Stakhovsky or a qualifier. The Cypriot flashed some good form in Atlanta before he got injured in the final against John Isner where he lost 6-3, 6-3. A good spell of rest could have him as the one to watch for a quarterfinal spot in this draw if Simon isn't interested. Baghdatis is 3-2 against Simon lifetime.
The bottom half of the quarter is led by seventh seeded Sam Querrey and tenth seed Joao Sousa. Querrey certainly should be the favorite to move through to the quarterfinals here. He has played well at Winston-Salem and should be better than Federico Delbonis or Simone Bolelli in the second round. Sousa could have more trouble advancing with Pablo Carreno-Busta or Tommy Haas waiting for him after the bye. If Querrey is taken out earlier than expected, I'm looking squarely at a motivated Tommy Haas to do it.
Second Quarter
Tsonga is boom or bust here as the three seed. If he gets by Denis Istomin or Donald Young to open, he could be in the mood to make a run this week. That will be the question that only seeing him in a match will answer. Even if motivated properly, Tsonga has some landmines in this part of the quarter with hard hitters like Sam Groth and 13th seed Steve Johnson in his way to the quarters. This columnist's gut says Tsonga is more bust than boom. Watch Groth in this section. He did well in D.C. and a smaller tournament like this suits reserved expectations that the Aussie might have.
In the bottom of the quarter, it's fifth seeded Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and ninth seeded Benoit Paire. This quarter could go any which way and lends you more to think the seeding might be blown up early. The most dangerous floater will likely be Robin Haase or Yen-Hsun Lu. They play in the opening round on Sunday. Both have played well here and should have the form edge on Garcia-Lopez. With Paire's lack of consistency perhaps awaiting in the third round, watch Haase or Lu squeeze into the quarterfinals.
Third Quarter
Fourth seeded Viktor Troicki could certainly use a change in form with a three match losing streak on this North American hard court swing. The losses culminated with a thrash job courtest of Mardy Fish last week in Cincinnati 6-2, 6-2. Troicki looked poor and needs to gain some form or he's toast at the U.S. Open in round one. He should have a chance to start well against either Joao Souza or Malek Jaziri, although both can be tricky at times on this surface. Opposite of him in this half is 15th seeded Temuraz Gabashvili who will be pressed from the jump as he gets either Alexandr Dolgopolov or Thanasi Kokkinakis to open the second round. If Troicki can find some traction early, this could be his quarter. If not, look for the Dolgopolov-Kokkinakis vs. Gabashvili second round match winner to have a great shot to get to the quarterfinals.
The other half of this quarter also looks open with sixth seeded Thomaz Bellucci and eleventh seeded Jiri Vesely as the two seeded players. Bellucci has a poor record on hard courts at 38-78 for his career, but he is rarely blown out by players of a similar skill set. Vesely is the one to watch. He lost his transitional match back to hard courts in Cincinatti to Bellucci, but has shown the ability for success with his big serve showing well when he finds the consistency. Vesely won his only career ATP title early this season in Auckland on an outdoor hard surface. James Duckworth is an interesting floater in this part of the quarter. He has shown some ability to harness his game on hard courts, but as with many, his lack of consistency off the ground often gets him in trouble. Vesely might be the better shot this week, but also take a look at the qualifiers who get slotted here against James Duckworth and Marsel Ilhan. They could make some noise.
Fourth Quarter
Kevin Anderson leads this part of the draw, but is just 1-2 all-time at Winston-Salem. He has never advanced past the third round. Anderson will need to be on point as he opens his campaign against a crafty veteran in either Nicolas Mahut or Mikhail Kukushkin. This tournament is one of the rare places that Mahut has found success outdoors on hard courts. He made the third round last year. Kukushkin is 1-2 at this event, but would be the trickier out. He does own a win over Anderson at last year's Shanghai Masters. The other part of this quarter is loaded with 2014 finalist Jerzy Janowicz as the 16th seed and defending Winston-Salem champion Lukas Rosol as an unseeded player. Oh yes, there is also this fellow named Ernests Gulbis who draws Rosol to open. This part of the draw could be hell on the seeded players. Expect an unseeded surprise to work through to the quarters, likely the Rosol-Gulbis winner.
In the opposite half of this quarter, rising star Borna Coric is seeded eighth with Pablo Andujar in as the 12th seed. Coric is still gaining experience on hard courts with this as his first full year playing these hard court tournaments at the ATP level. He showed well in Cincinnati as he took a set off Stan Wawrinka before losing in three. He beat another promising young player in Alexander Zverev in the opening round of that event. Coric will face a veteran first in Santiago Giraldo or Steve Darcis. While both are tough, it is a match that he needs to win if he is going to continue working up the rankings. Andujar is not suited to hard courts as evidenced with his 2-8 record in his last ten on the surface. Still, he gets either Daniel Gimeno-Traver or Diego Schwartzman in his first match. Gimeno-Traver is on an eight match losing streak. Schwartzman is just 2-5 in main draws on hard courts at this level in the last year. Coric is the clear talent in this part of the draw, but his inexperience will be put to the test by the veteran players he comes up against.
Semifinal Predictions
Sam Querrey def. Sam Groth, Borna Coric def. Temuraz Gabashvili
Finals Prediction
Querrey def. Coric