It’s been said that the first match after winning a Grand Slam title is the trickiest. Well that statement holds evidently true if your Stan Wawrinka. The newly crowned French Open champion has a significant first round test at the Aegon Championships at the Queen’s Club against Nick Kyrgios. The Aussie is always up for a challenge and pulling off the upset wouldn’t be the most shocking thing he’s done on grass. With Wawrinka prone to a letdown and Kyrgios eager to stir up the tournament and open up the draw, we are in for a treat tomorrow as we preview this first round matchup.
What Wawrinka Needs To Do To Win
The last thing the new world number four wants to do after winning his second major title is to lose in his opening round match. If Wawrinka wants to win this match against Kyrgios, he’s going to need to have a high first serve percentage, be aggressive, and attack the Kyrgios backhand. When Wawrinka is struggling, he’s unable to find his first serve and generates less than the typical amount of pace he does on the second serve. If that were to happen, Kyrgios is going to come right after the second serve and try and force Wawrinka on the defensive to start the rally.
A high first serve percentage and an aggressive playstyle go hand-in-hand, especially for Stan. When he’s hitting his first serve in, the world number four can end points quickly by going to the serve and volley or putting away the short ball with his forehand. Kyrgios is an average returner at best so there will be plenty of balls left in the middle of the court for Wawrinka to put away. The way Wawrinka kept going for his shots against Djokovic is what he’s going to need to do against Kyrgios, but he has to make smarter decisions on when to go for them though. Against Djokovic, you’re hitting shots against a world-class player both on the offensive and defensive so it’s literally a hit or miss tactic. With Kyrgios, if Wawrinka wisely picks the times he’ll go for the winner, he should be able to win. Finally, Wawrinka must attack the Kyrgios backhand to win. The backhand side of the Aussie’s is clearly his weakest shot because he’s unable to generate as much pace compared to his forehand side. That’s also the side of Kyrgios’ that breaks down the most under pressure. Should Stan be able to keep consistently hitting deep to the backhand side of Kyrgios, he should be able to end up winning the match.
What Kyrgios Needs To Do To Win
There are just a few relatively simple things that Kyrgios must do to win. Those things are a high first serve percentage, shorten rallies, and play smart. Kyrgios’ best asset is his serve because of the pace and direction he can generate. The serve is even more dangerous on grass because it’s the court that plays the fastest and has the lowest bounce; the playstyle of Kyrgios is best suited to this surface. He’s going to need to use that serve to win an abundance of free points since he’s going to have a difficult time trying to win majority of the rallies against Wawrinka. With the serve comes the ability to shorten the points for the Aussie. Wawrinka often uses the block back technique to return his serves. This technique neutralizes the pace on the serve, but the return often ends up short. Kyrgios must be able to take these short returns with his forehand to hit winners or try to take them off the volley. If he can volley them short, the bounce of the grass will keep it low making it challenging for Wawrinka to get to it.
Finally for Kyrgios, he must do something so simple yet it the idea seems elude his mind sometimes. What is it you ask? Well he must play smart. Ever since he broke onto the scene with his upset of Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon last year, the young Australian has been coined as a showman. He is a showman, just like how Monfils is a showman. However, there is a time for showmanship and a time to play (smart) tennis. Sometimes Kyrgios decides it's necessary to hit a tweener when it's completely not and fluffs it. In his match against Murray at the French Open, he hit a tweener and ended up winning the point, but his lesson was learned when the world number three completely schooled him. Kyrgios is going to need to play smart tennis to win because you don't beat the best just through show.
Prediction
The transition from grass to clay is quite arduous especially if you’re not given the proper amount of time to get adjusted. Early on, look for both men to struggle with their footing as they accustom their playstyle to the grass, but as the match goes on, we should be watching for both men trying to go for winners in a strategy to conserve energy knowing they have to play more matches in a short amount of time. With grass being Kyrgios’ best surface and Wawrinka’s weakest, this writer sees the upset being pulled off by the Aussie in three sets.