Write this prediction down. The USA men's national team (USMNT) will not win the 2014 World Cup.
It was an obvious prediction that most soccer observers could make, especially with Jurgen Klinsmann's USA side--a side that refused to throw away older and less technical soccer players, and one that often refused to integrate faster, stronger, more creative, and better players.
Here comes another bold prediction--this one that has been filing through the USA soccer Twitter-sphere. The USMNT has a good chance to get zero wins and zero goals this group. This was a prediction made by an unnamed former USA international to FourFourTwo only a week ago for their World Cup preview. With Germany, Portugal, and Ghana all fielding sides littered with European club stars, from Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo, Joao Moutinho, William Carvalho, Fabio Coentrao, Pepe, and Vierinha to Ghana's Kevin-Prince Boateng, Asamoah Gyan, Sulley Muntari, Michael Essien, Emmanuel Agyemang-Badu, Andre Ayew, Christian Atsu, Wakaso Mubarak, and Kwadwo Asamoah, to Die Mannschaft's roster full of world class players at every position--that prediction from FourFourTwo is one that might have plenty of support.
The USA breezed through CONCACAF qualifying without being forced to rid of the slower, less technical, older players Klinsmann rotated through the side, like Omar Gonzalez, Kyle Beckerman, Brad Davis, DaMarcus Beasley, Brad Evans, Graham Zusi, Clarence Goodson, and Chris Wondolowski, and quickly dismissing younger players who have quickly become influencers in MLS, Mexican, South American, and European teams (and preventing the USA from having the Latin American influence it will need to succeed at the internaitonal level).
Outside of a few meaningless friendlies, there has been little pressure to expose how poor of a tactician Jurgen Klinsmann is. This is the man who treated wingbacks (for a line of five as outside backs in a line of four when those wingbacks will not have the defensive instincts, recovery, or speed to stop Cristiano Ronaldo, Boateng, or any other attacker, or buildup on the outside. The USA manager is also the man that nearly put up Germany forward Thomas Muller up for sale because he did not agree with Klinsmann's "new-age" style of training, or his tactics while at Bayern Munich.
Sure, Klinsmann thinks he can claim credit for Germany's successes in the 2006 World Cup, but the only thing Klinsmann may have really done (when it comes to managing the game or the team) may have been to convince the DFB to incorporate Germany's immigrant players (and not leave them out of the squad because they weren't "German enough." And this willingness of Klinsmann to start to examine younger, minority players later in the cycle, especially Latino players (and any number of German-American dual nationals). But much of that effort, like with Germany's 2006 World Cup run, can be pegged on better assistant coaches--the Uruguay-born current USA Under-20 manager Tab Ramos (who was a recent hire for the senior side) in 2014 and Joachim Low in 2006 (for Germany).
We take a look at the USMNT's 23-man squad and set VAVEL USA's 23 as to whom the USMNT should take to Brazil, as well as potential weakpoints and strengths within each set of positions. With the improvements we make, the USMNT's chances of advancing are improved, but it would still take a few surprises for the Stars and Stripes to advance from Group G and have a real shot at World Cup glory.
Goalkeepers:
Tim Howard (Everton FC-England), Brad Guzan, (Aston Villa FC-England), Nick Rimando (Real Salt Lake-USA)
COMMENTARY: The USA brings three outstanding keepers, including two of the world's best in Tim Howard and Brad Guzan. Guzan stands out the keeper, in Europe's top five leagues ranked according to IFFHS, who has caught the most crosses, and stopped the most attack. Tim Howard has been the USA #1 for the last two cycles, but since Brad Guzan became Aston Villa's regular 'keeper, all he has done is single-handedly kept the Birmingham side in the top flight and bailing out a side whose defensive organization and man-marking has been poor at times (and often went for long periods without having the ball). Nick Rimando is a solid keeper, but his advanced age (along with that of Howard and Guzan) should be a major concern. The USA has options that are younger than 28 in DC United's Bill Hamid and Southampton's Cody Cropper, who are both elite level athletes, and good goalkeepers at both being 'sweepers' and stopping opposition attacks. The USA could also make a Julian Green-esque gamble and bring in the Mexico-born Will Yarbrough who just led Club Leon to the first Bicentenario since 2004.
VAVEL USA's Goalkeepers: Tim Howard, Brad Guzan, Bill Hamid (DC United-USA) /Will Yarbrough (Club Leon-Mexico)
Central Defenders:
John Brooks (Hertha BSC-Germany), Matt Besler (Sporting Kansas City-USA), Omar Gonzalez (LA Galaxy-USA), Geoff Cameron (Stoke City-ENG)
COMMENTARY: The central defense could be a liability if the pairing is Omar Gonzalez and Matt Besler. Besler is fast, but he is, at the international level, one-footed. He remains one of MLS's better defenders but given 17-year-old Erik Palmer-Brown just made his debut for Besler's club side and already looks miles better than the USA international in both recovery, control on the ball, and positioning, Besler may return to his club side having to fight for his spot in Sporting Kansas City's starting XI. Omar Gonzalez, who stands at an imposing 6'5", has been the biggest liability for the USA in recovery, attack, and in defending. The LA Galaxy defender is often slow to react to plays, and does not have the closing speed or ball control to allow the USA to build attacks from the back. John Brooks was a surprise selection, but the German-born defender is quick, possesses the ball-control and positioning instincts necessary to give the USA hope.
Geoff Cameron has the elite technical ability, speed (both physical speed and in playing the game) of someone that could fare well at the central defender spot. He was going to make the USA national team at any number of positions, including outside back, holding midfielder, and central defender.
Given the obvious weak points in Matt Besler and Omar Gonzalez, VAVEL USA recommends Klinsmann needed to give stronger consideration to Puebla's Michael Orozco, New England Revolution's Andrew Farrell, Colorado Rapids' Shane O'Neill, Maurice Edu (Philadelphia Union), Erik Palmer-Brown (though he just made his Sporting Kansas City debut in the last week), and Chris Schuler of Real Salt Lake.
VAVEL USA's Central Defenders: John Brooks, Geoff Cameron, Michael Orozco (Puebla FC-Mexico), Andrew Farrell (New England Revolution--USA)
Outside Defenders:
Fabian Johnson (TSG 1899 Hoffeinheim/Borussia Monchengladbach-Germany), Timothy Chandler (1. FC Nurmberg-Germany), DeAndre Yedlin (Seattle Sounders FC-USA), DaMarcus Beasley (Puebla FC-Mexico)
COMMENTARY: Klinsmann corrected one of his obvious errors from World Cup qualifications but selecting the technically gifted DeAndre Yedlin. The soon-to-be 'Gladbach left back/left wide midfielder Fabian Johnson has the technical ability and speed to provide the width to the USA attack that Yedlin does on the right. But Johnson's skill set could be better used in the wide attacking midfield, as would Timothy Chandler, although both would still be on the World Cup roster in some way, shape, or form. The other left back on the roster, DaMarcus Beasley, is currently looking for a club despite being an every-match player for Puebla. He does not have the defensive instincts or recovery of either Greg Garza (Tijuana) or Chris Klute (Colorado Rapids). Both would have given the USA a chance to survive the barrage of attacks likely to come down the right wing. Klinsmann's discarding of both Eric Lichaj and Jonathan Spector was also a curious move, given their standout efforts for their clubs this season.
VAVEL USA's Outside Defenders: Fabian Johnson, Greg Garza (Tijuana-Mexico) (Chris Klute is injured), DeAndre Yedlin, Timothy Chandler
Holding Midfielders/Box-to-Box Midfielders:
Michael Bradley (Toronto FC-Canada), Jermaine Jones (Besiktas JK-Turkey), Kyle Beckerman (Real Salt Lake-USA)
COMMENTARY: Michael Bradley and Jermaine Jones. given Geoff Cameron being deployed as a central defender, were locks to make the World Cup roster. Michael Bradley was, for a large part of 2013-14, a significant cog in a Roma side that earned second place in Serie A this season. With his injury and the arrival of Radja Nainggolan, Michael Bradley's big money move to Toronto FC allowed the holding midfielder to get back to form with sustained playing time. However, the midfielder is best when he is deployed as the #5 (destroyer, holding midfielder). Jermaine Jones's quality on the ball and positioning off of it should not be question. Many question the former Schalke 04 midfielder's tackling, but most of the cards Jones picked up while with the USA had been on recovery to prevent goal-scoring opportunities. Kyle Beckerman, the true accumulator of yellow cards (due to bad tackling) on the USA side, is too slow for the international game (both in speed and in ability to play the game at speed). The spot could have been used to bring in one of two young, dynamic MLS box-to-box/attacking midfielders in Benji Joya (Chicago Fire) and Perry Kitchen (DC United). We at VAVEL USA like Joya's range of passing and creativity over the steady, destroyer-like Kitchen although both could have significantly improved the Stars-and-Stripes' side in Brazil. We also like that Benji Joya would be the USA's lone pure box-to-box midfielder on the roster.
VAVEL USA's Holding Midfielders/Box-to-Box Midfielders: Michael Bradley, Jermaine Jones, Benji Joya (Chicago Fire)
Wide Attacking Midfielders/Wingers:
Alejandro Bedoya (FC Nantes, France). Graham Zusi (Sporting Kansas City-USA), Julian Green (Bayern Munich-Germany), Brad Davis (Houston Dynamo-USA)
COMMENTARY: LA Galaxy's Landon Donovan is the popular choice for strongest snub among all of the wide attacking options Klinsmann has available. The USA wide midfielder had been capped 156 times, and is the country's all-time leading scorer. But Donovan proved to be more of a Riquelme-type of enigma in a USA shirt in recent years, without Juan Roman Riquelme's world class creativity Given the USSF's advertising, it would have been wise to assume that Landon Donovan's spot was given to the better passer/more creative playmaker in Joe Corona (Tijuana), but instead, the spot went to Klinsmann's most curious selection in Brad Davis, who is one-footed at best. Of Brad Davis, Graham Zusi, and Alejandro Bedoya, all are pure wingers who offer speed and wide play, but not the elite-level creativity in 1v1 situations or in passing to threaten the likes of a Philipp Lahm, Pepe, or Kwadwo Asamoah. Julian Green is a player many consider a big gamble due to his age and lack of first team appearances. But the 19-year-old Bayern winger has been tipped by many within Bayern Munich (including wide midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger) for big things next season. A World Cup where Green surprises people and puts his speed, shooting, 1v1 ability, and passing together could see the winger become one of the future stars of the game, let alone the USA men's national team.
VAVEL USA's Wide Attacking Midfielders/Wingers: Julian Green, Joe Corona (Tijuana-Mexico), Alejandro Bedoya (Fabian Johnson or Timothy Chandler would slot into the fourth wide attacking mid role)
Central Attacking Midfielders:
Mix Diskerud (FC Rosenborg-Norway)
COMMENTARY: Jurgen Klinsmann dissed the idea that an enganche (or multiple playmakers in the attacking midfield) was necessary for the USA to have international success. However, the results of the USA in the 2009 Confederations Cup and 2010 World Cup showed the USA was at its best when it employed such a playmaker. Klinsmann was fortunate to have recognized the Norway-born Diskerud as a central attacking talent that was necessary for the World Cup. But Klinsmann did a disservice to two playmakers that were better than Diskerud (although Diskerud still makes the roster). Joe Corona (already listed) and Benny Feilhaber (Sporting Kansas City) are better options in the playmaking role for now, though a gamble on USA U-20 and Borussia Dortmund playmaker Junior Flores would have also been a logical decision.
VAVEL USA'S Central Attacking Midfielders: Mix Diskerud, Benny Feilhaber (Sporting Kansas City-USA)
Strikers:
Clint Dempsey (Seattle Sounders FC-USA), Jozy Altidore (Sunderland AFC-England), Aron Johannsson (AZ Alkmaar-Netherlands), Chris Wondolowski (San Jose Earthquakes-USA)
COMMENTARY: There is no way that the USA's most gifted player ever does not make the World Cup roster, even if he moved home on MLS record wages (that few clubs in either the USA or Mexico could afford). Jozy Altidore, despite his paltry scoring record at Sunderland, proved to be a player who took away runners, and contributed much more to Sunderland's hold-up play than many realized. His former AZ teammate, Aron Johannsson, picked up the scoring (and technical finishing)--and his technical ability, speed, and creativity in 1v1 situations was enough to warrant his spot on the team. Chris Wondolowski may have impressed Jurgen Klinsmann with his clinical finishing inside the penalty hawk, but the San Jose Earthquakes' striker cannot do so at world-level speed against the bes players in the world. Juan Agudelo (FC Utrecht/unattached) or Terrance Boyd (Rapid Wien-Austria) would have been more technical options against the kinds of defenses and defenders the USA would be facing. Agudelo's creativity and willingness to try everything in front of goal (or to get past defenders) is something that is badly needed to make the defenders the USA is facing worried. (However, Agudelo is looking for a new club after his second UK work permit appeal failed. He has gained interest from not only FC Utrecht on a full deal, but also other clubs within the Eredivisie, as well as Bundesliga and Serie A clubs).
VAVEL USA's Strikers: Clint Dempsey, Jozy Altidore, Aron Johannsson, Juan Agudelo (FC Utrecht/Unattached).