The second annual Grand Prix of Indianapolis, the fifth race of the 2015 season, was run and is now behind the teams and drivers of the Verizon IndyCar Series, who looked immediately ahead to the Indianapolis 500 - the Super Bowl, World Series, Stanley Cup, NBA Finals, etc. of American open-wheel racing. With the 2015 edition of the Indianapolis 500 to be run on Sunday, three IndyCar writers of the VAVEL USA Racing section put forth their thoughts on a few noteworthy topics before the green flag.
1. Which engine/aero kit manufacturer has the upper hand entering the Indianapolis 500?
Aaron Durant: Chevrolet may have been in the headlines much more in the week of practice leading up to Sunday's race, but they remain the clear manufacturer with the upper hand in my mind. Honda has only a single win through five races this season (Hinchcliffe's fluke win at NOLA), and Chevy has proven to be just plain faster through this opening stage of 2015. I think this has plenty to do with the talented drivers coming from large, dominant teams that use Chevy engines; with Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing being powered by Chevrolet, Honda is at a bit of a disadvantage already. The aero kits are still young, plus Honda has been focusing on Sunday's race almost entirely; this is just another element to Sunday's exciting race.
Emma Hoole: While there is a lot of debate about the aero kits and the effect of the changes that were enforced for qualifying, it is clear that Chevy has a clear advantage in terms of driver line-up. In theory, Andretti Autosport are the strongest Honda team, but they are yet to get into their stride in 2015, and Honda’s strongest driver so far this year, Graham Rahal, has a patchy 500 record. In contrast, Chevy have the powerhouses of Penske and Ganassi and their wealth of driving talent, as well as several strong smaller teams, in particular CFH Racing who are probably the dark horse team for the 500. One of the Andretti Autosport drivers, or another Honda driver may well come good on the day, but it certainly looks on the basis of driving talent, that it is more likely that a Chevy will win the 500 this year.
Cathy Shumaker: At first glance, it would appear to be Chevrolet who has had speed all month. Also, Honda has definitely been slower at Indy. However, this is a very long race and fuel mileage as well as longevity are critical. Based on the previous races and the performances by Graham Rahal, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Honda pull it off. In all honestly, though, I don't think either manufacturer has a clear advantage.
2. What do you think will be an important factor/element of this year's '500'?
Aaron Durant: I think cautions will come into play. Last year, the race was impacted at a minimum by yellows, but that was before aero kits - and before the accidents that have taken place thus far this month. Caution periods will allow those in the middle or the back of the pack to become potential contenders for a win at the Greatest Spectacle in Racing.
Emma Hoole: The amount of cautions that occur could be a big factor. A race with only one or two periods of yellow is far more likely to go according to the form book than a race with lots of cautions. Even if the pre-qualifying changes have sorted the problems that led to multiple accidents until that point (and it’s impossible to be 100% certain of that), James Hinchcliffe’s accident showed that incidents will always occur, even if there’s not a specific factor leading to a clutch of them. If there are multiple yellows then a lot more different strategies will come into play and the result will be more unpredictable.
Cathy Shumaker: The untried aero kits will be a big factor in the outcome of the race in my opinion. This will be the first outing for the superspeedway aero kits with by far the largest field of the season. After Chevrolet's problems with cars getting airborne, it is apparent that there are still plenty of unknowns about how the cars react. Honda has not had the same issues with cars flipping over and has not wrecked like the Chevrolets have this month, however neither car has run for long stretches in a group, so it remains to be seen how the cars react in traffic.
3. How will this year's race differ from the 98th Running last year?
Aaron Durant: The easy answer: aero kits. I think that my answer to the above question answers this one as well, though. Races are affected greatly by accidents, and, remember: cautions breed cautions. Of course, the aero kits could play into the cautions with contact resulting in debris on the race track and accidents resulting in longer periods for cleanup.
Emma Hoole: Although we can’t be sure what the effect of the aero kits will be on the way the race pans out, it certainly means there is another variable in the mix compared to last year. Uncertainty over whether the problems that led to the crashes before qualifying have been solved may lead to teams being more cautious about strategy. There are certaintly more unpredictable variables this year.
Cathy Shumaker: I'm expecting more cautions than last year. In the 98th Running last May, green flag racing ran from the beginning of the race to 140 laps in; I think aero kits and their truly limited track-time will come into play and result in the yellow flag coming out frequently.
4. Who do you think will win the Indianapolis 500 and why?
Aaron Durant: If Scott Dixon is able to start (from the pole) and run a strong race throughout, I think he has a great shot at winning from pole position as he did in 2008. In my mind, though, any driver from either Penske and Ganassi is a great pick for a win at any race. The unpredictability is what makes the Indianapolis 500 and racing as a whole exciting, though, so if I could answer "anyone" here, I would.
Emma Hoole: There are certainly a core group of usual suspects who are the most likely contenders, foremost amongst them some of the Ganassi drivers - polesitter Scott Dixon, as well as Tony Kanaan, always strong at Indianapolis - and some of the Penske drivers - three time winner Helio Castroneves, and Will Power, who has improved immensely on ovals over the last two years or so. However, the '500' is always unpredictable, partly because of the length of the race, and partly because it remains one of the most challenging ovals. There will always be an element of a lottery of sorts about the race, as it only takes one small thing going wrong to take someone out of contention, and for that reason I will never be comfortable in saying more than who are likely to be the main contenders.
Cathy Shumaker: It would be hard to bet against one of the Team Penske drivers. Roger Penske is the master of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the four Penske cars have been strong all month. I think Simon Pagenaud has the edge over the other three cars of Helio Castroneves (who will be going for his fourth career '500' win), Will Power (reigning champion and Grand Prix of Indianapolis winner), and Juan Pablo Montoya (points leader and St. Petersburg winner). Pagenaud has been fast all month and starts from the outside of the front row. This could be his year.
5. What drivers are possible "dark horses" that could grab a win on Sunday?
Aaron Durant: He has gotten closer to erasing his name from the virtual list of "dark horses," but Graham Rahal could definitely be an answer here - especially after the gearbox issues he had during qualifying that resulted in a very poor starting position for Sunday's race. Marco Andretti, any of CFH Racing besides Carpenter, and any one-off driver (Alex Tagliani, perhaps) are all possible ones as well.
Emma Hoole: While the drivers I mentioned previously are certainly the most likely contenders, there are a small batch of other drivers who while less likely than the drivers of the powerhouse teams, are certainly possible contenders. Andretti Autosport drivers aren’t normally in the dark horse category, but given current form, I think they can be considered such at the moment. If Marco Andretti can stay calm and not panic, then he certainly has the ability to do well in the 500, as he’s shown before. I don’t believe there’s such a thing as an Andretti Curse, but the problem is I suspect he thinks there may be one! Keeping a cool head may well be the biggest barrier he needs to overcome if he is to win the 500, this or any other year. Teammate Carlos Munoz is another dark horse, having run so well in his rookie year in 2013, finishing runner up. If running close to the edge works in his favour and gives him an advantage rather than landing him in the wall, he could well be at the sharp end again come the finish. The other dark horses, in my opinion, can be found at CFH Racing, in the shape of team owner and two-time 500 polesitter Ed Carpenter, and JR Hildebrand, another rookie runner-up in 2011. Both have proved they can be fast in the 500 and have been fast this month, and if things fall their way, they certainly can be contenders.
Cathy Shumaker: Marco Andretti has always run well at the Brickyard; this may be the year that the Andretti Curse to rest.
6. Personally, who are you rooting for and why?
Aaron Durant: A win by Helio Castroneves, Sebastien Bourdais, Graham Rahal, or JR Hildebrand would pay dividends to my fantasy team, that's for certain! I am a fan of Castroneves and Team Penske as a whole, so they've got my support.
Emma Hoole: No two ways about it, I want JR to win it. As a fan of his, 2011 was horrible (particularly as it was the first 500 I watched), and it's always been tough seeing people saying he choked (a term I’ve come to loathe when it's used against anyone in a sporting context) when I’ve always believed he was put in a close to impossible situation - there's a big difference between dealing with traffic and a car slowly limping to the end on a racing line. While I’ve accepted what happened (although I will always believe the #83 should have been black flagged, or at least told to get off the racing line), I desperately want to see JR in Victory Lane at last. That said, I would be happy to see Carlos Munoz, another favourite driver, win too.
Cathy Shumaker: I am a big Simon Pagenaud fan and would love to see him kiss the bricks this year. On a more sentimental note, Graham Rahal is a fan favorite and it would be great for IndyCar if a second-generation driver won. Also, Steak n' Shake is a great sponsor addition and it would be a fitting honor if co-owner David Letterman went to victory lane on the same week he retired from his show.
The 99th Running of the Indianapolis 500 is set to go green on Sunday, May 24. Watch for a LIVE on the Racing section to bring you minute-to-minute coverage of the race and be sure to follow the brand-new Twitter account of IndyCar coverage on VAVEL USA, @VAVELIndyCar.