The San Jose Sharks had a 3-0 series lead in their first round playoff series with the Los Angeles Kings. They were absolutely dominating the Kings through the first two games, and then game three happened and there seemed to be a shift in the series. The Sharks won that game in overtime and took their 3-0 series lead. But the Kings finally showed up in the series, and since then have come roaring back in this series which now sits at 3-3. The Kings are threatening to be just the fourth team in NHL History to complete the 3-0 comeback and win the series. The other three times; 1942 by the Toronto Maple Leafs, 1975 by the NY Islanders, and 2010 by the Philadelphia Flyers (fun fact Mike Richards and Jeff Carter were on that Philly team). So the question is why has this happened and can the Sharks stop the Kings from completing the near-impossible feat.
Let’s take a look at the advanced metrics trend for the first six games of this series with a chart from extraskater.com:
The chart above highlights the FF% in close situations and demonstrates how dominant the Sharks were in Games 1 & 2 and then from Game 3 onwards the Kings have been trending upwards. Let’s break this down from the Sharks perspective into a more readable table to highlight the Fenwick for all situations, the Fenwick for when the game was close and the outcome of the game itself.
| Game | Sharks FF% All Situations | Sharks FF% Close | Outcome |
| 1 | 55.7% | 61.9% | W 6-3 |
| 2 | 58.1% | 60.7% | W 7-2 |
| 3 | 49.6% | 48.6% | W 4-3(OT) |
| 4 | 57.8% | 55.8% | L 6-3 |
| 5 | 47.4% | 25.0% | L 3-0 |
| 6 | 50.6% | 50.8% | L 4-1 |
Looking at Games 1 and 2 it is astonishing how dominant the Sharks were when the game was still in reach for the Kings. The Sharks were above 60% Fenwick close in these games, they were running roughshod over the Kings clearly dominating the hockey game. So what happened in game three that resulted in the Sharks seemingly falling apart? It is hard to know for sure, but an improved performance from Jonathan Quick combined with Drew Doughty, Marian Gaborik and Jeff Carter having solid games would be one influencing factor. Another potential factor could be that all but two Kings players were above 50.0% CF% on the night.
Many factors go into a hockey game which will factor into the outcome. Penalties, players, home ice advantage, line matching, luck and much more. The factors which influence an individual game are many and are random at most times.
The thing to take away from these advanced metrics is that outside the first two games, the Sharks have not really been the dominant team in this series. Game 5 was especially ghastly for San Jose, especially when considering it was on home ice. The Sharks of Games 1 & 2 have disappeared, and the past playoff failures are likely entering the minds of these Shark players.
The Sharks have consistently dominant for many years now, and they are always one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. Yet year after year they fail to execute in the Playoffs and become Stanley Cup Champions.
Teams can prepare for matchups all day and night. They practice their system, they look video, they train and they plan how they will execute once the puck drops. But at the end of the day it is a game of hockey. Winning hockey games is not as easy as planning, practicing and looking video. There are too many factors in any given game which will affect the outcome. That is why on any given night any team can win.
The exact reason for these post-season failures cannot be identified by any statistic. People will throw blame around, call out players (Joe Thornton has taken his fair share of blame over the years), coaches and management but at the end of the day it is a combination of all the above. The best place for San Jose to start and take the next step is by winning this Game 7 against the Los Angeles Kings. If they can avoid the full-collapse they may finally get over the mental block that has plagued them for so many years. The Sharks will need the leaders of this team to bring their best game tonight, they will be relying on guys like Marleau, Thornton, Pavelski and Boyle to get them through the night.
Tonight we will find out if the Sharks can finally slay the demons that are clearly causing them trouble yet again.
This article uses information which can be found at extraskater.com