The AFC South is a mix of vast experience and unlimited potential, all of which will build to an exciting few seasons ahead, including the 2023-24 NFL campaign, which starts on Thursday night.

The reigning division champions, the Jacksonville Jaguars, return as the favourites but have a hungry chasing pack of the vastly experienced Tennessee Titans and the young and fearless Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts hunting them down.

A potential transition year awaits the three hunting the Jags down, but it would be foolish to write off anyone before the season starts.

  • Jaguars rise to top in 2022-23

Last season saw the Jags claim their first division title under the stewardship of Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence, only their second ever.

It was far from simple though, eventually taking the crown with a 9-8 record and sneaking into the Playoffs, largely in part due to a disastrous collapse by the Titans.

After a 3-7 start, six wins from the last seven including the final five propelled the team into a first post-season appearance since 2017. After dismal seasons prior, the Jags spent a record amount of money on free agent signings to give Lawrence enough weapons and protection - as well as bolstering the defense - and it definitely paid off. Lawrence threw for more than 4,000 yards, scoring 25 touchdowns with just eight interceptions, leading into the Wildcard round against the Los Angeles Chargers.

At 27-0 down, Lawrence spearheaded the comeback, despite his first quarter troubles, to see his team win the game 31-30. They would eventually lose to the future SuperBowl winners the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional round a week later, but held their own in the 27-20 defeat.

The Titans lead the way in the early goings of the season, racing out to a 7-3 record and looking shoe-ins for a spot in the post-season. This included a run of seven wins in eight games, three against division rivals, including home and away victories against the Colts.

However, seven straight defeats followed to ensure Mike Vrabel’s side suffered their first losing season since 2015, and their fate was sealed at Jacksonville in a winner-takes-all encounter in the final week of the season.

Injuries hampered the Titans as the season went along, including the Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and to veteran Offensive Tackle Taylor Lewan, who missed 15 games.

The Colts were one of the League’s major disappointments in 2022, falling well below expectations with a 4-12-1 season.

After picking up veteran Matt Ryan for a third-round draft pick, Frank Reich was faced with his fifth starting signal caller in as many seasons. Reich was fired from his position with the team 3-5-1 with injuries also playing a part in Indy.

Jeff Saturday - the former Colt and Hall-of-Fame Lineman - came in and took the reins of a ship that rapidly sank.

The most notable part of the campaign for Saturday and Indy was overseeing the team sit on the wrong side of history, as the Minnesota Vikings completed the biggest comeback in NFL history after being 33-0 down to the Colts at half-time in Week 15.

Over in Houston, the Texans slumped to their worst season since 2013, finishing with a record of 3-13-1. To make matters worse, the team failed to win a single game at NRG Stadium - the only time they didn’t lose was in the week 1 tie with the Colts, the first stalemate in franchise history.

The first season since 2016 without Deshaun Watson leading the offence was nothing short of a failure, one that ended with the victory over Indy in the final week of the regular season, a result which ultimately bumped them down a spot in the 2023 draft.

  • Youth the name of the game

It’s slightly unheard of for a rookie coach to have a rookie QB, so how rare is it for there to be two teams in the same facing the same proposition. CJ Stroud, who went at two to the Texans, and the Colts fourth-overall pick Anthony Richardson have both been announced as their coaches starting guys.

Tennessee also have their own rookie Quarterback in their ranks. Will Levis was expected to be taken up alongside Stroud and Richardson, but fell down to the Titans. He will start the season as back up to Tannehill.

The Texans, after taking Stroud, moved up to the three spot with a deal with the Arizona Cardinals for edge rusher Will Anderson, a position on the defensive side of the ball they desperately needed to fill.

For Jacksonville, they traded down in the draft, to pick 27, to pick up offensive lineman Anton Harrison, adding some extra protection in front of Lawrence.

After last year’s spending exploits, the Jags haven’t turned much around this summer, but will be excited to have one of those signings from last season finally make their debut, in Calvin Ridley.

Ridley was suspended for the entirety of last season for breaching the league’s betting rules. Another option for Lawrence to hit down the field. 

Elsewhere, Houston brought in tight end Dalton Schultz, wide receiver Robert Woods - from division rivals Tennessee - and safety Jimmie Ward, adding veterans to DeMeco Ryan’s rebuilding side that will be able to nurture some of the younger guys already on the roster.

Free Agency was not overly kind to the Indianapolis Colts. QB Gardner Minshew was brought in after previously working with head-coach Shane Steichen in Philadelphia, who could see plenty of action, especially if it takes Richardson longer to adapt than first hoped. Jonathan Taylor’s absence due to his contract dispute might leave the Colts with little choice but to find a deal for their star running back rather than lose him for nothing at the end of his deal.

Tennessee’s free agency was equally as tough, struggling to strengthen their offense. The biggest additions came on the defensive side of the ball, edge rusher Arden Key, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting all joining Vrabel’s side.

Jacksonville, as mentioned, did not need to spend as freely as they did last year, with their main aim achieved in keeping their roster together, boosted by lower level signings and high-potential draft picks.

  • Can Colts take advantage of easy schedule?

Based on the projected win totals, Indy has the easiest schedule in the AFC South, and the third-easiest in the entire league.

They start the season with two division games, firstly at home to the Jags before facing Houston in Texas a week later. That is followed by a trip to Baltimore to face the Baltimore Ravens, before heading home for two games to face the LA Rams and the Titans.

The Jaguars, with the most difficult schedule among teams in this division, face the reigning champions Kansas City in week 2 at home, before staying at TIAA Bank Field to face the Texans. They play their third home game in a row in week four against the Atlanta Falcons, before finally heading back out on the road to face the Buffalo Bills.

Tennessee’s schedule is predicted to be only marginally easier than the Jags, starting their season on the road at the New Orleans Saints. A home game against the LA Chargers follows, with games also against the Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, and the Colts in their opening five.

Houston’s schedule is predicted to be only slightly easier than that, but they do not have a pretty start. Away games against the Ravens, Jaguars and Falcons, alongside home games against the Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers feature in their opening five. 

  • Lawrence for MVP?

His name has been mentioned a lot so far, but it can’t be understated just how important Lawrence is.

Undoubtedly, he is the star in the AFC South, his huge improvement under Pederson last season is surely only going to be the start of an eventual rise to MVP level.

Many tout him to reach that level this year, and there is no stopping him from reaching those heights. He has the weapons around him to hit in Ridley, Zay Jones and Christian Kirk that will make him look even better, and a strong line in front of him to protect him from the big hits that have cost many star signal-callers’ careers.

In a division with young players with plenty of high potentials, Lawrence is somewhat of a veteran now, and has all the tools in his armoury required to be one of the best. Can he lead this Jaguars team deep into the playoffs? It remains to be seen but, with an MVP-calibre season, there’s no reason why not.

  • Jaguars to go back-to-back

The Jaguars have been installed as favourites to take the division, and rightfully so. They will be aiming for a 10 win season for the first time since 2017, which would be enough to take them to the post-season from this transitioning division.

There is a chance for the Titans to disrupt the Jaguars predicted march to the top, but it will mostly depend on Henry and how far he can push his body. The squad is experienced, and has every chance with Henry and Tannehill running the offense and Kevin Byard the leader on the other side of the ball. There is a good chance of Tennessee sneaking into the playoffs as a wildcard.

Indy and Houston are up and coming sides and will not be expecting much heading into this season. The Texans are probably in a more favourable position, but either team could take that third spot, and both teams are very likely to find themselves back towards the top of the draft order once again in spring 2024.