1-Johnny Manziel is a lock to go to Cleveland at some point. If not at #4, they’ll deal up to #12-14 to get him. Apparently there’s pressure from the owner to “make the Browns relevant” again by taking the biggest name QB to make a big splash. The fight inside the “war room” is about whether to take Sammy Watkins at #4, then deal up in the first round to take Manziel to make an even bigger splash.
2-The Redskins might deal up for Dee Ford, but will take Morgan Moses if he’s there. The Redskins really like Morgan Moses (and Tiny Richardson), but if Dee Ford somehow drops into the 20s, the Skins will be very tempted to deal up for him. Bruce Allen doesn’t have any long term plans for Brian Orakpo and Ford would be a near perfect fit for the 3 front defense that Gruden wants to run with or without Haslett.
3-St. Louis is talking to three teams about dealing the #2 overall pick. Reportedly the three teams are Atlanta (if Clowney drops to #2 overall), Buffalo (also if Clowney is there at #2 overall), and Detroit (Watkins). This doesn’t include whatever teams plan to call them if Clowney or someone else drops to #2 overall and whomever St. Louis calls on draft day to gauge interest.
4-Carolina’s drop dead plan for the LT spot. The Panthers don’t want to take the guy, but they feel that they have to take a LT at #28 at all costs and will take Cyrus Kouandjio if there’s no one else there. It’s possible that they trade down if they’re stuck with Kouandjio, but the league knows this and the return for dealing down will muted lessened. There’s a lot of people in the Panthers’ war room who have their fingers crossed that another OT prospect drops to them at #28.
5-Juwan James is rising into the 1st round. He might not last past Miami if Zach Martin is taken very high. It’s possible that the entire Tennessee Vols’ offensive line is drafted during this weekend. Tiny Richardson should be a day 2 pick, the interior linemen probably go in day 3. James has generally been regarded as a day 2 pick that could go in the top 60 picks. However, his stock has taken a big turn for the better with teams seeing him as a polished RT prospect that could leapfrog Morgan Moses into the middle part of the 1st round. With Zach Martin’s rise into the 11-19 range, James could be an alternative for a teams like Miami to consider if they miss out on Martin.
6-The Giants really like Zach Martin at #12. This doesn’t mean that they’ll take him, but their offensive line coach has a connection to the Notre Dame offensive staff and the word is that they really like him as a choice if the rest of their talent obsessed board is gone.
7-The Bengals really want Bradley Roby in the 1st. This should hardly be a surprise. The Bengals think that they have a draft bust on their hands with Dre Kirkpatrick. He’s so bad that Mike Zimmer doesn’t even want him at Minnesota. The Pacman is a good CB but him and Leon Hall just aren’t enough anymore thanks to age. Roby is a local kid, fits their scheme and won’t be asked to do some heavy lifting in year one.
8-Darqueze Dennard is dropping, probably out of the first round. A lot of teams like Dennard, especially those trying to mimic the Seahawks’ defensive scheme. He’s a smart, physical CB who can jam just about any WR and stay with him down the field. And he saw a nice rise in his draft stock thanks to teams realizing this. However, teams also realize that there’s a number of other CBs who can do this (more or less) and are available later in the draft, so Dennard has gone from a potentially top 15 pick to a prospect taken in the 20-45 range.
9-Troy Niklas is rising up draft boards. Niklas is a member of the flying Matthews clan, specifically he’s the nephew of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews (Cousin of Clay, Jake, etc, etc). He sat behind Tyler Eifert for two seasons, but when he finally got his chance, he went from “unknown” to “Day 2 pick.” He’s rising even farther from this perch and could sneak into the end of the 1st if there’s a run on TEs.
10-Tampa and Minnesota are calling around to teams in the 14-20 range looking to deal out. Both teams don’t see the talent that they want dropping to them at their top 10 picks. The Vikings seem to be locked into one certain QB, but who that could be is anyone’s guess. As for the Bucs, if Aaron Donald is there at 7, expect the Bears to deal up swapping a 3rd round pick with #14 to move up.
11-If a QB (Manziel to Tom Savage, Mettenberger, etc) drops to Washington at 34, the Redskins will deal down. It’s no real secret that the Redskins, unless a prospect drops dramatically into their laps, would like to deal down from #34. Ideally they would like to pick up a future first round pick and another 3rd or 4th, and the most likely scenario where this happens is if one of the 2nd tier QBs drop to them at #34. How likely this is to happen is anyone’s guess, especially with teams like Seattle (who like to trade down) and Houston (in need of a Qb if they draft Clowney #1 overall) right in front of their first pick.
12-Derek Carr won’t fall past #20 (Arizona). Another team that’s not making much of a secret of their desires for the first round are the Arizona Cardinals. They’re clearly after a QB of the future to replace Carson Palmer down the road despite needing talent in a few other places. Their top target, whom they don’t think will be available when they pick, is Derek Carr. If he’s there, it’s hard to imagine that they won’t get the pick in very quickly.
13-The Titans are very interested in Haha Clinton-Dix. The Titans are a team hard to get a beat on for their draft needs with pick #11. It’s plausible that they could take almost any prospect available (save for an OT) there since they have so many holes to fill. The current belief is that their top target is Alabama safety Haha Clinton-Dix. This makes some sense if they deal Michael Griffin to the Rams (to be reunited with his old HC and DC).
14- Don’t be shocked if Jordan Matthews and Cyrus Kouandjio both go in the first round. This is largely conjecture, but both are going to be in the draft green room on Thursday night and are represented by Bus Cook. Cook is nobody’s fool and he wouldn’t have agreed to let them go there unless he had assurances that both would be taken on thursday night. Matthews is more of a surprise than Kouandjio, but it’s very plausible that a team would take him in the dying hours of the first round.
15-If the Eagles trade up, it will be for Anthony Barr. The Eagles have their short list of players that they’re targeting at #22, but who they really would like to draft is Anthony Barr. They see him as an inside/out LB for their 3-4 defense who can eventually replace Trent Cole at OLB. This would be a sheer talent pick for them, but they’re willing to move some picks to make it happen.
16-The Rams are attempting to get a pick from the Browns for Manziel. There’s a ridiculous rumor floating around, that the Rams would deal Sam Bradford to the Vikings and draft Johnny Manziel to replace him. The Vikings coyly denied part of this rumor today, but here’s what’s really going on: Les Snead is no fool. He sees the Browns desperately trying not to show how much they want to take Manziel at 4, so he senses an opportunity to fleece them of a pick or two to sucker them to move up there to draft him. Even if Snead ends up just getting a 3rd or 4th in 2015, he still ends up with the player that he wanted at #2. And the Browns are dumb enough to fall for this scam.