We come strolling into week six, and teams are finally beginning to show their true colours. Luck can only keep a team afloat for so long (**cough Houston Texans cough**), and teams playing over their heads have slowly begun to fall back to earth (Miami Dolphins). With that in mind, here are my predictions for this week:

Green Bay at Baltimore

The Packers are decimated at linebacker and their offensive line is still a problem, which should play right into the hands of Baltimore’s hard-nosed style; they’re going to rush the passer and run the ball. But with Flacco’s performances akin to a light switch, it’s hard to trust him on any given week. On the other hand, it’s difficult to pick against Aaron Rodgers and his loaded receivers corps, along with the now emergent run game. It’ll be close, but Rodgers will be a little too much for Baltimore to handle.

Green Bay 27 – 23 Baltimore

Cincinnati at Buffalo

On paper, this game shouldn’t be close. The Bengals have a stifling defense and the Bills are starting Thad Lewis at quarterback. Yeah, Thad Lewis (in case you don’t know who he is, he couldn’t even crack the Browns roster as a third-string quarterback). The problem for the Bengals is the Bills always seem to play good teams tough when they’re at home. Buffalo’s defense is strong enough to keep Andy Dalton from doing much, and Fred Jackson has looked like the 2011 version of himself. If Buffalo’s defense and run-game can be effective this game will be close. If either falters, expect a blowout.

Cincinnati 24 – 10 Buffalo

Detroit at Cleveland

Detroit’s hopes fall squarely on whether Calvin Johnson plays in this game. Without Megatron, the Lions have to center their offense around Reggie Bush, and that’s not an easy task against the Browns defense. Unfortunately for the Browns, Brandon Weeden is back to being the starter, which has trouble written all over it. The outcome of this game fully depends on Calvin Johnson’s status. For argument’s sake, the assumption here is he plays.

Detroit 24 – 16 Cleveland

St. Louis at Houston

Besides maybe the Falcons, Houston has been the NFL’s biggest disappointment thus far. Matt Schaub has looked like the worst quarterback in the NFL and has been regressing since last season. However, St. Louis may not have the firepower to win this game. With Schaub’s recent performances, Gary Kubiak is going to put this game in the hands of Arian Foster and Ben Tate, which will control the pace. And the Texans defense, led by Brian Cushing and JJ Watt, won’t let St. Louis get too much going.

Houston 20 – 10 St. Louis

Oakland at Kansas City

The Chiefs have been the NFL’s biggest surprise, being one of three unbeaten teams left in the league. Oakland has also been a surprise, to milder degree. But The Chiefs are the type of team to beat opponents that, simply put, they should beat. Kansas City doesn’t make mistakes, they run the ball well, and their defense is suffocating. Unless Oakland can play mistake-costless football and force turnovers, they won’t beat the Chiefs.

Kansas City 30 – 17 Oakland

Carolina at Minnesota

When you think Carolina might finally be putting it together, they lay a dud against the Cardinals. You never know what the Panthers or Cam Newton are going to give you. Meanwhile, the Vikings are sticking with Matt Cassell at quarterback, and Adrian Peterson will play, despite the tragic news about his son. Our Condolences go out to Peterson and his family.

Minnesota 23 – 20 Panthers

Pittsburgh at NY Jets

After everyone thought Geno Smith was playing himself out of the job (butt fumble 2.0, anyone?), he plays lights out on primetime against a preseason powerhouse in Atlanta. Nobody thought the Jets would be 3-2 and the Steelers would be winless heading into this game, but that’s the way the cookies have fallen thus far. Unfortunately for the Jets, Antonio Cromartie hurt his knee and may not play this week. And the Steelers finally have a run game. They’re due, right?

Pittsburgh 27 – 20 NY Jets

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

Michael Vick is doubtful to play, and the distraction that is Josh Freeman is finally gone from the Tampa Bay locker room. The recipe for Tampa Bay to win this week is all there, with Vick’s absence keeping all the attention on LeSean McCoy. This is assuming that Darrell Revis plays well enough to limit Desean Jackson from his normally explosive play this year.

Tampa Bay 21 – 17 Philadelphia

Jacksonville at Denver

Jacksonville is awful and Denver is a freight train. Next.

Denver 45 – 16 Jacksonville

Tennessee at Seattle

With Jake Locker missing from action, Ryan Fitzpatrick is tasked with taking the Titans into the most imposing atmosphere in the entire NFL. The Titans only weapon is Chris Johnson, and he will be shut down by the Seahawks fantastic defense. There’s no way Seattle loses their second straight.

Seattle 37 – 17 Tennessee

New Orleans at New England

With the firepower in this game, a shootout is what many people expect. But with the way both defenses have plated, a lower scoring game may be very possible, and even likely. Neither team wants to throw the ball 60 times. This game will come down to defense and turnovers.

New Orleans 28 – 27 New England

Arizona at San Francisco

San Francisco has not looked special at any point this season; they’ve been mediocre in all facets, including defense. On the other hand, Arizona has quietly squeaked out three wins and walk into this game with the same record as the 49ers at 3-2. The Cardinals defense has been stout, and Patrick Peterson has looked like an absolute superstar. The problem here is they don’t have the weapons to score enough points to beat a defensively responsible team in San Francisco. Carson Palmer has thrown nine interceptions to only five touchdowns. If he puts up another dud, San Francisco will move to 4-2.

San Francisco 29 – 16 Arizona

Washington at Dallas

After last week’s heartbreak, Dallas should come into this game hungry. The Redskins pass defense is terrible, which plays right into the Cowboys hands. Romo doesn’t need to be as good as he was last week, but a mistake-costless game should allow Dallas to score a tonne of points. Unfortunately for the Redskins, Griffin III just isn’t healthy enough to keep Washington competitive.

Dallas 38 – 27 Washington

Indianapolis at San Diego

All football fans should consider themselves lucky that they get to look the career arc of Andrew Luck. He’s a superstar in the making, and can easily join the NFL elite very soon. He’s also got the Colts to 4-1 on the heels of a statement win over the Seahawks. Even if San Diego plays well, the Colts are playing too well to lose this game.

Indianapolis 31 – 13 Chargers