So good, yet not good enough. It’s been the theme of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish football squad in recent years.
In 2015, the Irish were possibly one win away from a berth in the College Football Playoff. Up by a point with barely 30 seconds to play, they couldn’t hold the lead against Stanford, suffering a crushing 38-36 defeat that ended their playoff aspirations.
In 2014, boasting a 6-0 record, the Irish stayed right with Florida State, ranked second in the nation and the defending national champions. However, a game-winning touchdown was called back due to a penalty, the Irish lost the game, and they went into a tailspin, losing five of their final six games, including the FSU heartbreaker, to finish 7-5, barely enough to qualify for their bowl game.
In 2013, a promising season was derailed when their star quarterback, Everett Golson, was suspended for ‘poor academic judgment’.
And of course, there was 2012. The magical undefeated regular season that culminated in a humiliating 42-14 loss to Alabama in the BCS National Championship.
It’s been a roller coaster road for Notre Dame football and their fans in these recent years, but could the 2016 team finally deliver the suffering squad to the promised land? They have issues to overcome and games critical games sprinkled throughout their schedule, but it is certainly doable for the Fighting Irish.
The Quarterback Situation
If Malik Zaire hadn’t broken his ankle in the second game of the 2015 season, this likely wouldn’t be an issue right now. However, the broken ankle forced head coach Brian Kelly to replace Zaire with backup QB Deshone Kizer. It looked like the season was lost for the Irish, until Kizer proved himself to be a very capable Division I quarterback. Kizer engineered the Fighting Irish to a 10-3 record. They were 10-1 with a chance at making the College Football Playoff, but the heartbreaking Stanford loss ended that chance, pitting them against Ohio State in their bowl game.
Although Kizer performed well, his defense let the Buckeyes stamp all over them for 44 points in a 44-28 loss. Kizer proved himself an excellent signal-caller with a cannon of an arm. He is widely regarded to have the better arm of the two quarterbacks, but Zaire is more effective in the running game. Kizer can run, but he is more of a powerful runner, useful in 3rd and short situations, rather than picking up large chunks of yardage - such is the ability of Zaire, a speedy left-handed QB.
Kelly has not announced a starter, but he has said that both Zaire, a senior, and Kizer, a junior, will play in the game. Will there be a decisive starter? Will it be equal playing time for both quarterbacks? Could we possibly see the rare two-quarterback formation? (Unlikely, but possible and quite intriguing.)
If used correctly, Kizer and Zaire could make things a nightmare for opposing defenses, as they try to defend Zaire’s explosive playmaking ability, Kizer’s arm and powerful running, and the different styles of offense that Notre Dame builds around each signal-caller. Kelly has increased his advantage by refusing to announce a starter, meaning that Texas, their first opponent, is trying to prepare for whatever Notre Dame throws at them on offense. The quarterback situation will be key to Notre Dame’s success, and they will hope their two quarterbacks, who have combined for 14 starts, can combine to lead Notre Dame to a successful season.
Offensive playmakers besides quarterback
While the Fighting Irish have a problem at quarterback that most teams would be jealous of, their other playmaking positions are a little shakier. They’ll trust Tarean Folston with the starting duties at running back, hoping that Folston recovers from his injury that kept him out of almost the entire 2015 season. In his 2014 campaign, Folston, now a senior, rushed for 5.1 yards per carry, gaining 889 rushing yards overall, to go with six touchdowns. He was also a force in the receiving corp, catching short passes and turning them into big gains for the Irish. He caught 18 passes for 190 yards and a touchdown in 2014. If Folston recovers from injury and returns to his 2014 form, the Fighting Irish could be in fine shape, especially with sophomore Josh Adams as their second-string rusher.
Adams broke out late last season as a running back. Although he hasn’t been implemented into the passing game very much, he certainly has that potential. His raw running ability is spectacular, as proven by his 7.1 yards per carry. He also turned in a 98-yard touchdown rush last season, the longest run from scrimmage in Notre Dame history. Used more and more often as the season wore on, Adams gained at least 140 rushing yards in 3 of the final 4 regular season games, the lone exception coming against the stingy defense of Boston College. Folston and Adams make a strong base for the run game, but the depth beyond that is questionable and inexperienced. The Fighting Irish were ravaged by injuries last year, and they certainly can’t afford that in this season.
Notre Dame’s receiving corp will be, until they prove otherwise, considered the weak link of an otherwise powerful Notre Dame offense. They will rely on the leadership of Torii Hunter Jr., a senior, to captain a very inexperienced group of receivers. The two starters that join Hunter in the receiving game have one career reception apiece. Meanwhile, their starting tight end, Durham Smythe, has four career receptions entering his senior season. Notre Dame might have top-tier quarterbacks, but their receivers will need to step up in a big way. Hunter will almost certainly draw the top cornerback from opposing teams, meaning that other receivers, like Equanimeous St. Brown, a sophomore that made one meaningless reception against UMass last season, and CJ Sanders, whose credentials are the same as St. Brown’s, will need to shine for Notre Dame.
While other coaches have called Notre Dame’s receivers’ ‘inexperienced but talented’, Notre Dame fans will likely remain unconvinced until they see the youngsters in action. St. Brown could become a playmaker for the Irish, as he stands tall at 6’4”, and sturdy at 205 pounds. Sanders is on the smaller side, at 5’8” and 185 pounds, but he is speedy and could be valuable running long routes for the Irish, or short passes that he can turn into big yardage. He will also be handling punt and kick return duties for the Irish. Hunter is the only starter with experience, with 35 career receptions for over 400 yards. He will be a critical veteran presence for Notre Dame, whose quarterbacks will rely on Hunter to come up with the big catch late in games. Hunter has a tough task on his hands, but is he up to it? Kevin Stepherson, Miles Boykin, and Corey Holmes are second string receivers for Notre Dame. They also have very little experience, but they’ll hope to come up big for the Irish.
Defense
The defense was a major weakness for Notre Dame in 2015. They stepped up occasionally, but, for the majority of the season, their defense was leaky and had a tough time stopping decent offenses, especially in the later part of the season. As aforementioned, they collapsed in the most critical 30 seconds of the season for Notre Dame. After Kizer engineered what should have been the game-winning drive, the Irish looked helpless as Stanford marched up the field for a game-winning kick as time expired, snuffing out Notre Dame’s playoff hopes. In their bowl game, although Kizer put up an excellent 28 points on a tough Ohio State defense led by Joey Bosa, their defense folded, giving up 44 points in the loss. They had other tough moments throughout the season, including giving up 27 points to a spotty Virginia offense and 30 points to Pittsburgh.
With the loss of the likes of Sheldon Day and KeiVarae Russell to the NFL, as well as Max Redfield to suspension, this defense remains a huge question mark. The depth chart has been announced, but the positions are still fluid and the large majority of the starters are young and inexperienced. As with their receivers, Notre Dame’s success will rely on young players stepping up and performing on the big stage. Thankfully, to ease this break-in, Notre Dame has two games to prepare for their first major showdown of the season, a critical match-up versus Michigan State.
Key Games and Projected Record
When eyeing the Notre Dame schedule, three games stick out as the critical points in Notre Dame’s schedule. A Week 3 game against Michigan State is their first major test, which comes four weeks prior to a showdown with Stanford. Their season will conclude with a major road test at USC, a tough trip to Southern California that always produces tough games for the Irish. The other games on the Notre Dame schedule will hopefully, barring an upset, turn into victories for the Irish, who have two games at neutral sites, one against Army, and the other against Navy. With that advantage, the Irish get to play 6 home games against only four true road games. However, two of those home games are against Michigan State and Stanford, hardly easy games. If the Irish end the season with more than three losses, it will be considered quite disappointing.
For now, with their defense and receivers untested and unproven, this writer will predict Notre Dame to finish with a 10-2 record. Their chances against Michigan State may be lessened by the fact that the Spartans are coming off a bye week, with extra time to prepare for the game. The Stanford game is winnable, and Notre Dame tends to have success at home against the Cardinal. The road game is a major test and, although it could certainly be a win for Notre Dame, it’s tough to predict a tough road victory from such a young team. Their projected record will have them slotted for ten wins, but, if this young team gels quickly and can come out on top in what could be some nail-biting showdowns, there is no reason they couldn’t be competing for a playoff spot, come late November.