The California Golden Bears probably weren’t thinking about playing in the Armed Forces Bowl five weeks into the season, when they cracked the Top 25 and sported a 5-0 record.
However, a second half slump left Cal with just a 7-5 record, leaving them to play in a lower-tier bowl game against the Air Force Falcons on December 29th, at 2:00 PM EST. The game will be held in Fort Worth, Texas.
REMATCH OF THE 2007 ARMED FORCES BOWL
The matchup on Tuesday between the Falcons and the Golden Bears will be the first since 2007, when the two programs also met in the Armed Forces Bowl. The game resulted in a 42-36 Cal victory. The really funny coincidence about that, Cal started that season 5-0 as well, before stumbling to a 7-6 finish.
Overall, Cal leads the brief overall series between these two squads, winning six of eight matchups. They enter Tuesday’s game riding a two-game winning streak against the Falcons.
THE SLUMP OF THE GOLDEN BEARS
When Cal opened with five straight wins including victories against bowl-eligible squads in San Diego State, Washington and Washington State, they had the college football world’s attention. However, after cracking the Top 25, Cal melted in the spotlight, dropping their next four games. They lost to then fifth-ranked Utah, before dropping decisions to solid programs - though unranked - in UCLA, USC and Oregon. The Golden Bears’ once promising season had fallen into shambles as, with just three games remaining, Cal was yet to clinch a bowl game berth. They did that on November 14th, with a 30-point victory over Oregon State, but then dropped the subsequent matchup against Stanford. A narrow 48-46 victory over Arizona State in the final week guaranteed Cal a winning record and a shot at their first eight-win season since 2009. Overall, it’s been a good season for Cal, under their normal expectations. However, it was certainly not where the Golden Bears hoped to be a couple of months ago.
A SEASON OF UPS AND DOWNS FOR THE FALCONS
While the Golden Bears ripped off five straight wins to open the season, Air Force, coming off a 10-win season, was more inconsistent. They won their first two games, blowout wins over Morgan State and San Jose St, before dropping their next two. The first loss was a well-played 35-21 dropped decision to Michigan State, who is now in the College Football Playoff. Following that was a horrendous 22-point loss to the rival Midshipmen of the Naval Academy. The Falcons returned home to top Wyoming 31-17 but when they went on the road, they dropped their third away game in three tries, losing 38-23 to Colorado State. However, it was the last loss for a while for the Falcons, who strung together a five-game winning streak. They blew out Fresno State and Hawaii, including their first road win over the Rainbows of Hawaii. They cruised past rival Army 20-3, then edged out Utah State and Boise State. Their win over Boise State was yet another road win for the Falcons. However, New Mexico got the best of the Falcons in the final week of the regular season, as Air Force dropped a 47-35 decision in the finale. However, their two-loss performance in conference play was enough to get the Falcons to the Mountain West Championship Game, which they dropped narrowly to San Diego State, 27-24.
It’s been a season of streaks for Air Force. They are 5-2 since a 3-3 start but are riding a two-game losing streak. A streaky team is not dependable, but Air Force fans are hoping that Air Force can collect one more win and avoid their first three-game losing streak since 2013.
STAR QUARTERBACK LEADS CAL’S HIGH-OCTANE OFFENSE
Quarterback Jared Goff has been putting up huge numbers for the Golden Bears, leading their offense to a whopping 36.5 points per game. He was the first Cal quarterback to be named first team all-conference since the reign of Aaron Rodgers. He led the Pac-12 in touchdown passes, and was second in passing yards per game. He ranked third and fourth nationally in the previous categories, respectively. Goff threw six touchdowns in Cal’s monster win over Oregon State that clinched a bowl game berth.
Goff has a wide variety of weapons too, as Cal is the only squad in the country with at least six receivers with at least 35 receptions on the season. Kenny Lawler and Bryce Teggs lead the group of talented receivers that will be tested against a strong Air Force pass defense, which has allowed opposing quarterbacks just a 51 percent completion percentage and barely 200 yards per game. Cal’s calling card is their big-play offense, while the trademark of Air Force’s defense is their ability to prevent big plays and their ‘bend but don’t break’ defense.
AIR FORCE’S TRIPLE OPTION DANGEROUS AGAINST WEAK CAL DEFENSE
Like the other military schools, Air Force uses a triple-option offense, led by running back Jacobi Owens and quarterback Karson Roberts. Their running game will be very dangerous against a weak Cal run defense. Cal has given up over 200 rushing yards per game, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. If they allow Air Force to put up similar numbers, the Falcons will wear the Golden Bears down.
Air Force loves to possess the ball and if they can just pound the Bears with their ground game, they’ll do exactly that, eating up tons of clock and forcing Jared Goff to work his magic in limited amounts of time. And, to complement the run game, Karson Roberts has a strong arm that can help Air Force generate some big plays if their run game is stuffed. Cal needs to concentrate on stopping the Falcons’ clock-chewing ground game, but they must be wary of Roberts, who has averaged 21 yards per completion. Cal’s leaky defense has allowed 30 points per game so stopping the Falcons will be a huge challenge.
THE PREDICTION
This is a tough pick because Cal’s offense has more firepower than Air Force’s offense, but the Golden Bear’s defense is one of the worst in the country. Air Force has enough of an offensive attack, particularly their run game, that can exploit Cal’s defense. They also have a strong enough defensive unit to keep Jared Goff and his versatile core of receivers at bay.
Prediction: Air Force, 34-30