It’s a new era for college football as the BCS era is a thing of the past and the College Football Playoff is here. A committee will meet and decide which four teams are most deserving of the opportunity to play for the College Football Championship, using seemingly sensible factors such as strength of schedule, record and head-to-head results, while steering well clear of any half-baked computer ranking systems. It’s reasonable to assume that over the next two or three seasons the majority of the teams that reach the playoffs will be conference champions. Realistically, any non-champions would need to have an incredible strength of schedule to force their way in. In the long run it should see teams arranging to increase competitive out of conference slate, something we are already seeing, but most teams are already locked into their schedules for the next few years. That means the majority of their notable games come via conference play, so losing in conference play will make it difficult to reach the playoffs.
The preseason favorites for most conferences in 2014 are obvious. It would shock no one if the four entrants from the 2014 season are drawn from Alabama, Auburn, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State, Florida State, Baylor and Oklahoma. However any surprise teams that can get themselves into conference contention can crash that party, earning themselves the opportunity to become an unlikely participant in the inaugural College Football Playoffs. Here we nominate a potential surprising contender, in some cases very surprising, for each of the power 5 conferences and list them by order of likelihood of success.
Big Ten – Iowa
It is the inaugural season for the expanded and reconfigured Big Ten. Rutgers and Maryland have joined and the ridiculously named Legends and Leaders Divisions are a thing of the past, and in their place are the seven team East and West divisions. Iowa find themselves in the less formidable West Division, where Wisconsin is expected to dominate.
Kirk Ferentz is entering his 16th season in charge of the Hawkeyes. He has won two Big Ten Championships and recorded four ten win seasons - 2014 could well bring the fifth. The biggest task facing the Hawkeye coaching staff is to ensure that the defense continues to play at a very high level. The defensive line returns almost intact with talented players filtering into the rotation. It is anchored by two impressive defensive tackles, Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Pasat, and should be the strength of the defense. However, the Hawkeyes need to replace an excellent linebacker unit and patch up the secondary. They have the talent to do so, but the experience drain is a concern.
Iowa return all but one of the key contributors on an offense which should be stronger across the board. The one significant loss is at TE where C.J. Fiedorowicz is off to the NFL; however, they do have good options at the position and can expect more production from the wide receiver group in 2014. An offensive line that is led by All-Big Ten LT Brandon Scherff should be amongst the best in the conference. Quarterback Jake Rudock had some growing pains as a first year starter, but overall his play was hugely encouraging. Now in his second season under center, the Hawkeyes can expect him to develop into the intelligent game manager that Ferentz covets at the position.
Of course, this is Iowa Football which means they want to pound the ball on the ground and they have assembled a solid group of backs with that purpose in mind. Mark Weisman, Jordan Canzeri and Damon Bullock offer the complete package from the running back position. Weisman brings power, Canzeri explosiveness, and Bullock is a good receiver. That trio should be featured again in 2014, but expect the workload to differ, with the dangerous Canzeri commanding a greater share of the workload. He carries the most big play threat and having him on the field more often makes the offense more potent. In addition to a greater utilization of Canzeri’s talents, the Hawkeyes will also look to improve their big play threat by working Damond Powell, and spring standout Derrick Willies into the WR unit. Powell is a senior and former Junior College transfer with terrific speed, while Willies is a redshirt freshman with an impressive combination of size and speed. Getting them involved will stretch the field and will open things up for the running backs.
The 2014 schedule has fallen kindly for the Hawkeyes - they play host to Iowa State, Indiana, Nebraska and most importantly, Wisconsin, while the hardest matchup on the road is a toss-up between Pittsburgh, Maryland and Minnesota. A ten win season is certainly achievable. With an improving offense and a favorable schedule the stars seemed to be aligning for the Hawkeyes to make a run in 2014. They have a legitimate opportunity to register a double digit win record and reach into the Big Ten Championship game. Once there they would be just one win away from a potential spot in the inaugural College Football Playoffs, and while the East Division Champions would likely be favored, the Hawkeyes would definitely have a chance.
ACC – Duke
Can the 2013 Coastal Division champions really be considered a dark horse to repeat the feat? They can when that champion is a Duke team that lost 45-7 to Florida State in the ACC title game, a Duke team that had only recorded one Championship season in the previous 50 years, and that was a tie for the ACC in 1989. Rather than entering 2014 as one of the front runners in the ACC Coastal Division, many expect Duke to return to normality. Instead perennially talented underachievers North Carolina are tipped for success, followed by the similarly gifted, yet underachieving Miami. Or possibly even a tough Virginia Tech team which should play well on defense and pound the ball well enough, even if the aerial attack seems lacking.
However, overlooking the Blue Devils does a huge disservice to David Cutcliffe’s team, whose 2013 breakthrough was no flash in the pan. Rather it was built upon solid foundations, and with the majority of the 2013 team returning, there is little reason to believe there will be a fall off in 2014. Throughout the spring Cutcliffe made it abundantly clear that this is the deepest roster he has had since arriving in Durham after the 2007 season and they have recruited well. There have been departures from the 2013 team of course, but many replacements of similar quality were already on the roster. Some have experience while others will be surrounded by experienced starters easing the transition.
The two key losses are likely to be offensive coordinator Kurt Roper, and short yardage QB Brandon Connette. Roper ran a creative offense and will be missed, however, it was also Cutcliffe’s scheme and the new coordinator, Scottie Montgomery, so the offense should be very similar in 2014. Montgomery was on the staff in 2013 as the wide receiver's coach. Connette split time with starting QB Anthony Boone in 2013. Boone had the better arm, while Connette was more of a running threat, allowing the offense to be more multiple in short yardage situations. Boone can run and they may just utilize the same offense with Boone stepping into Connette’s shoes, as well as filling his own. However, that exposes the starting QB to a higher level of punishment and they may change up their red zone offense as a result.
Boone’s three biggest playmakers all return in WR Jamison Crowder, TE Braxton Deaver and RB Josh Snead, and there is depth around them. Whatever way they tweak the red zone offense for 2014, this unit will continue to move the ball and score points. The greater concern is what happens when the opposition have the ball. The Blue Devil defense was able to hold its own against most offenses but struggled with the more athletically gifted teams, which amply demonstrated their deficincies when they allowed 97 points in the final two games against FSU and Texas A&M.
As well as returning most of their starters, Duke have been handed a favorable schedule, avoiding both FSU and Clemson, and hosting North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Reaching a second successive Championship game is a distinct possibility, though it’s hard to see them faring better than last year should they meet FSU again, which makes a playoff spot highly unlikely, but you never know how a one-off game will go.
SEC – Ole Miss
In truth, any surprise team in the SEC is most likely to come from the SEC East, where the two favorites, Georgia and South Carolina, will compete with returning champions Missouri, yet all three have weaknesses. Florida could break out, they have a mean defense, and strong offensive line, a potent ground attack and a creative new offensive coordinator, but trips to play at Alabama and Florida State will be problematic.
So the search for a dark horse in the SEC turns to the West, where Auburn and Alabama are expected to come on top, with LSU and Texas A&M in close pursuit, though that pair have some rebuilding issues that could see them fall short of a title challenge. The only team that appears capable of breaking that four team hegemony is Ole Miss.
Third year head coach Hugh Freeze has shown considerable success bringing talent to Oxford. The 2013 recruiting class was one of the best in the nation and began filtering into the depth chart immediately. The Rebels utilize an up-tempo, spread option offense and have the athletic talent at the skill positions to be explosive. The offensive line looks a little thin, which is a concern and probably forces their highly touted freshmen into the rotation, but there is some talent there.
The offensive scheme requires a mobile QB and places an awful lot of pressure on that quarterback’s decision making. Returning two year starter Bo Wallace certainly has the right physical characteristics for the role but has struggled as a decision maker at times. However, Wallace demonstrated clear progression from 2012 to 2013, and should do the same again as a third year starting QB, which bodes well for the Rebels. If Wallace’s shoulder is in full working order, and if his arm strength holds up throughout the season having faded down the stretch in 2013, the Rebels offense should be highly effective.
On the other side of the ball the Rebels could be poised for a breakout season as their undersized but very athletic defense matures, returning almost all the strongest players from the 2013 unit. From a strong looking defensive line featuring Robert Nkemdiche and Issac Gross, to a terrific secondary led by Cody Prewitt and Tony Conner, there is SEC caliber talent throughout.
Ole Miss have caught a break with the scheduling in 2014. They avoid the top teams from the East, and have home games against both Alabama and Auburn, the two putative favorites for the West. Ole Miss could well lose to both teams, but hosting them in Oxford gives them a chance. The toughest road tests should come against Texas A&M and LSU, two teams undergoing a transition on offense. As always, the regular season ends with the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. That game is in Oxford this year and Ole Miss will fancy their chances in that one.
The 2014 Rebels should be a tougher proposition than the 2013 version, the two-deep roster looks increasingly talented and there is enough experience to cope with the demands of the SEC. However, while the schedule is as favorable as it could be for Ole Miss, it’s far from easy and making it through the SEC gauntlet is probably beyond them for now. Emerging victorious from a talent rich SEC West would be a momentous achievement for Hugh Freeze and his Rebels.
Big 12 – Texas
The Mack Brown era in Austin has finally come to an end. Taken as a whole, his time in charge was a terrific success highlighted by the BCS National Championship victory, however, Brown’s reign fizzled out with the Longhorns going 30-21 over his final four seasons. Brown hadn’t turned into a bad coach, far from it, but it just wasn’t working for him anymore and the change had become inevitable.
Now it is Charlie Strong’s turn to lead the Longhorns and try to steer them back to the upper echelons of college football. A very successful defensive coordinator with Florida, Strong worked wonders in his first head coaching job at Louisville and has promised a culture change at Texas. He inherits an athletically talented but underperforming roster, and wasted little time in telling the players that their poor play had caused the dismissal of a good coaching staff.
Both lines look solid; the offensive line should be strong and has some depth; the defensive line will be led by end Cedric Reed and tackle Malcolm Brown and could be terrific, but appears to be very reliant upon the fitness of the first choice unit. So long as the defensive line performs as expected the rest of the defense should be just fine, there is enough athleticism and skill to capitalize on a dominant defensive line. The same is true on offense where there is an abundance of potential at the skill positions. There are numerous receiving options, particularly in the slot, and a potentially potent RB combination of Malcolm Brown, Johnathan Gray and Joe Bergeron running behind a good offensive line. The question is whether there will be a QB capable of taking advantage of that.
David Ash is the only experienced option and should be the starter if available, but he missed most of last season after a concussion and is currently dealing with a fractured foot from the spring. If the ground attack clicks, then all the Longhorns really need is a game manager at QB, and if healthy, Ash has the potential to be that. He played well at times in 2012, particularly early on when leading Texas to victories at Ole Miss and Oklahoma Stae. Ash's play unraveled at times during Big 12 play, he should be two years wiser and stronger for the experience. However, should Ash be unavailable then they must turn to untried sophomore Tyrone Swoopes or true freshman Jerrod Heard.
Texas face their biggest tests early in the season, hosting BYU who ran all over them last season, and a strong UCLA in September during their out of conference slate. Conference play begins against Kansas, before the Longhorns face back-to-back matches against the two leading contenders to win the Big 12. They host Baylor in Austin before traveling to the Cotton Bowl for the Red River rivalry against Oklahoma. If, and it’s a huge if, they come through those games unscathed, then the schedule really opens up for them. The visit to Stillwater in mid-November looking to be the toughest hurdle remaining after the Oklahoma game.
It’s unlikely that the Longhorns can get the better of either Baylor or Oklahoma, never mind both of them, and defeat against UCLA is a distinct possibility. However, if Charlie Strong and his staff can coax the best out of a talented but previously underperforming squad, they could well become a factor in the Big 12 title race.
Pac-12 – Arizona
The Wildcats have the toughest assignment of any of these potential surprise contenders. The competition for the Pac 12 title looks set to be formidable in 2014 with Stanford, Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State and potentially USC in the mix. This is not a conference where surprises seem likely. Arizona have to play four of those five, only missing out Stanford, and have to travel to play both Oregon and UCLA. They have to replace B.J. Denker and Ka’Deem Carey, at QB and RB respectively, and lose a number of starters from an improving defense.
Despite the hurdles, the Wildcats are more than capable of competing with every team on their schedule. They pushed UCLA close in the fourth quarter last season and handed Oregon a 42-16 defeat, a match the Wildcats approached with a terrific intensity and focus. They will need to replicate that approach with greater consistency if they are to succeed in 2014.
While the competitions to start at QB and RB remain open, there is enough talent at both spots to be confident that the Wildcats will have solid play in the backfield once again in 2014. They will be playing in a proven offensive system, so while there is unlikely to be an individual runner who can replace Ka’Deem Carey, there is enough athletic potential to ensure that the offense remains productive on the ground.
It would hugely benefit the Wildcats if the passing game is more productive than in 2013, when losses at WR made the passing game less effective and the offense easier to defend. However they enter the 2014 season with huge returning starters at both OT spots, Mickey Baucus and Fabbians Ebbele, and an abundance of talent at WR, led by the fit again Austin Hill. If one of the four QBs contending to start can master the offense, then the Wildcats will be able to score points against anyone.
Rich Rodriguez coached teams can always score, but they have often been let down by the defense. That was certainly the case while he was at Michigan, and was again evident in the defensive struggles of the 2012 Wildcats. That 2012 defense rarely generated stops which forced the offense into shootouts. They conceded 34.3 points and 485.7 yards per game, registered just 16 sacks and 12 interceptions, and allowed nine opponents to exceed 30 points. However, the defense took a huge step forward in 2013 when they conceded 24.7 points and 405.3 yards per game, registered 24 sacks and 18 interceptions, and allowed just four teams to exceed 30 points. They do need to break-in some new starters, but there is talent to work with, while the returning LB Scooby Wright and a talented secondary give the defense some solid experience.
Arizona should be a good team in 2014, but expecting them to emerge on top of in an extremely tough Pac 12 is too much to ask. They are the least likely of our five potential dark horse teams to contend for a playoff spot in 2014.