Carlos Beltran could return to the lineup as early as July 17 for the New York Yankees according to Major League Baseball's website. Beltran had an awful start to the 2015 season, but has turned it around quite a bit raising his stats to a .260 AVG, .309 OBP, and a .430 SLG. With Beltran returning, the Yankees are faced with the decision as to who to start in right field. They can start the switch hitting Beltran daily or start a platoon of Chris Young and Garrett Jones. It turns out that the solution is a hybrid of the two.
What are the stats against left handed pitching according to FanGraphs?
Beltran has not hit too well, hitting just .239 AVG, .307 OBP, and a .407 SLG, with a 21.3 K% against left handed pitching this season. Jones has also not fared too well, hitting well below average with a .150 AVG, .227 OBP, .350 SLG, with a 13.6 K% against left handed pitching this season. Young has fared wonderfully by putting up a .354 AVG, .411 OBP, and a .646 SLG, with a 14.3 K% against left handed pitching this season.
There is no reason why Chris Young should not start against left handed pitching and the Yankees should bring him in against left handed relievers regardless of the situation.
What are the stats against right handed pitching according to FanGraphs?
Beltran against right handed pitching this season has hit much better than he has against left handed pitching with a .269 AVG, .310 OBP, and a .440 SLG, with a 17.6 K%. Jones puts up a competition against Beltran against right handed pitching this season but has hit for a .248 AVG, .287 OBP, and a .404 SLG, with a 25.3 K%. Slightly less effectively than Beltran. As for Chris Young, he should not go near right handed pitching. This season he has hit for just a .181 AVG, .230 OBP, and a .331 SLG, with a 21.9 K%.
The stats show that Carlos Beltran has hit better against right handed pitching than Garrett Jones. Whenever possible if a right handed pitcher is brought into a game to face Chris Young it would be beneficial to pinch hit Beltran or Jones.
Looking further into the numbers.
It turns out that Garrett Jones against right handed pitching is much better at home games than he is at away games this season. As for Beltran, his home and away splits are pretty similar. Garrett Jones has hit for a .294 AVG, .345 OBP, and a .471 SLG with a 25.5 K% at home games against right handed pitching this season. While at away games against right handed pitching Jones has just a .207 AVG, .233 OBP, and a .345 SLG, with a similar K% at 25%.
Beltran does hit better at home games against right handed pitchers as well, but not as well as Jones does. Beltran has hit for a .276 AVG, .317 OBP, and a .474 SLG with a 18.3 K% against right handed pitching at home. When at away games - right handed pitching he has hit much better than Garrett Jones, hitting for a .263 AVG, .305 OBP, and a .414 SLG, with a 17.1 K%.
Against right handed pitching the Yankees should start Garrett Jones at home and Beltran at games on road. Although Beltran is also better at home than he is away, he is not better than Jones at home. Jones benefits from the small dimensions of Yankee Stadium more than Beltran. Jones pulls the ball 50% of the time and hits a fly ball 36.3% of the time against right handed pitching. Beltran pulls the ball 44.1% of the time and hits a fly ball 39.9% of the time against right handed pitching.
In an article by Jason Brannon of SB Nation he states that about about 28% of plate appearances are pitched by left handed pitching. That means Chris Young will be playing about 28% of the games, Jones 36%, and Beltran 36%.
What about defense?
Chris Young has played the best defense this season providing the Yankees with a 1.3 UZR and 1 defensive run saved. As for Jones and Beltran, both have performed below average in the outfield. Beltran has a terrible UZR of -4.8 and -9 defensive runs saved and Jones has a UZR of -0.7 and -2 defensive runs saved.
It would appear to makes sense for Beltran to start in right field at home rather on the road given the significantly smaller outfield in Yankee Stadium, but the offensive statistics prevent that. Jones benefits much more hitting at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees will need to make more decisions like this one in the second half of the season. Veterans will need to rest and manager Joe Girardi will have to play the match ups to give his players the best chance to succeed.