The starting pitching article listed each pitcher giving a zero in S, which stands for saves. Starters do not often get saves, but it has happened. This means if a team wants to compete in all five categories, owners will need to have a closer to net them some saves. There just happens to be one small problem with closers. The top-tier closers are drafted far too high to get value, and the lower end ones rotate out as fast as a teams rotation goes. So the question comes down to owners: Do they take the hit and draft an elite closer or try to get a ticket for the closer carousal?
One of the most commonly held and said beliefs in fantasy regarding closers is never to pay for saves. In this writer's opinion, there are few closers who are really worth the sixth-round pick. Owners will have to spend to get them, and, in fact, there are only three. Owners should pay for saves since closers are always rotating on teams, and cheap saves are normally easy to find. Some of the best examples are pitchers such as Jim Johnson, Fernando Rodney, and Steve Cishek, who all came into saves during the previous season but were not closers when the season began. None of these guys make the list, but two of them did run with the job and now are closers for teams to this day.
So what happens if a team needs saves during the season? There is a bit of a science in predicting the next closer to be for teams. The first place to look are the teams that are either out of the running or likely not going to make a run for the playoffs. Yes, this does seem counter-intuitive. However, teams that are out of the running will often trade closers at the trade deadline, meaning that saves may rotate to the next best pitcher or a young arm looking to make a mark. Teams like the Astros, Rays, Rangers, Rockies, etc. are targets for this kind of strategy. Another way to predict is to look for the more fragile closers and pick up the likely pitcher to get saves. Example: Tyler Clippard is as of now the closer for the A’s until Sean Doolittle makes it back from the DL.
Craig Kimbrel
2015 Prediction: ERA-1.60, WHIP-0.80, K-110, W-4, S-45
Kimbrel broke onto the scene for the Braves back in 2010, and the closer position has never been the same. Kimbrel brings all the tools that a good pitcher needs, including some of the nastier pitches in baseball. Kimbrel owns a career 14.82 K/9 and even non-stat-minded owners can understand how high that is. To put that into perspective for the non-saber-stat-minded owners, that means his 2013-2014 seasons where DOWN years when it comes to his K/9. While he does tend to give up a walk a little too often, it has not been an issue for him to this point and is not likely to do so because he can strike out many batters. This is the only closer that owners can consider drafting in the slot he is expected to be drafted in, but that is only because of how dominant he really is.
Aroldis Chapman
2015 Prediction: ERA-2.20, WHIP-1.00, K-120, W-6, S-35
The one closer who could actually beat Kimbrel in striking out batters is Chapman, who dwarfs even Kimbrel’s impressive 14.82 career K/9 with his own 15.32 career K/9. In 2014, Chapman owned a staggering 17.67 K/9 while limiting his BB/9 to 4.0. While that is high, it balances out with the sheer number of strikeouts he will get. Sadly, Chapman had his 2014 cut short by a freak accident and was on the DL for the end of the season, but, luckily, as of now, there do not seem to be any real side effects affecting Chapman during Spring Training. The biggest issue with Chapman may very well be his team, which really took a step back in the division; the saves may be gapped.
Greg Holland
2015 Prediction: ERA-1.90, WHIP-1.05, K-100, W-4, S-30
Holland represents how a player can work his way into the closer's role since he became a closer in 2012; he was a relief pitcher for two years before getting his first shot. Holland has earned his way to becoming one of the elite closers in baseball, having a very similar skill set to Kimbrel's, but not as much strike out potential. Holland can fall victim to control issues at times, but as he has matured as a pitcher. He has gotten more and more under control, but walks still happen. Much like with Chapman, the team is the real issue here since the Royals took a heavy hit in the offseason; they are not the same team that they were in 2014.
Kenley Jensen
2015 Prediction: ERA-1.90, WHIP-1.10, K-108, W-4, S-40
2014 seemed like a down year for the Dodgers' closer, but, in reality, it was a very strong year. There were some down sides aside from the rise in ERA, notably the slight rise in BB/9. The real area that shows that Jensen just was unlucky was his BABIP that ballooned from his career .281 to an unbelievable .350. Of course, this had an adverse affect on his opponents' batting average and WHIP, but his FIP tells a different story. His FIP for 2014 was 1.91, almost a full run under his actual ERA. That could spell one heck of a comeback for owners willing to overlook one unlucky season.
Mark Melancon
2015 Prediction: ERA-1.90, WHIP-0.80, K-70, W-4, S-40
Melancon is another prime example of why owners should not pay for saves. Melacon did not get his big chance to close until 2013, five years after his debut with the Yankees. Melancon has one of baseball's best cutters and uses it to deadly effect in getting hitters to ground out more than 50% of the time. That is one of the major downfalls of Melancon as a fantasy closer. Do not misunderstand; he is very ownable, but he will not reach triple digit strikeouts like others on this list and is probably the only closer that will likely not even flirt with ninety strikeouts. Take good with the bad since he has a good defense behind him, so do not expect a Jensen situation anytime soon.
Trevor Rosenthal
2015 Prediction: ERA-2.50, WHIP-1.30, K-90, W-8, S-40
This is the first real high-risk, high-reward type player on the list, and it has all to do with the very iffy 2014 Rosenthal had. First, here are the good points: He earned 45 saves, he maintained an 11.13 K/9, and he lowered both his BABIP and opponents batting average from his 2013 totals. In contrary, the one thing that is very glaring is that horrendous BB/9 of 5.37. For those not really clear about the difference between starters and bullpen BB/9 rate, a starter with a 3.50 is good while a bullpen arm with a 3.50 is getting pretty bad. Rosenthal is young enough to bounce back, but owners should not make him their main closer or only closer because if he does not improve that BB/9, he will be out of a job fast.
David Robertson
2015 Prediction: ERA-2.50, WHIP-1.10, K-100, W-4, S-35
A new team for Robertson -- and a better team -- could actually make him more valuable than he is listed here. 2014 was his first seasonas a full-time closer for the Yankees, and he did a very admiral job holding down the second-hardest position in all of baseball. Filling in for Mariano Rivera is not easy after all. Robertson brings a mix of good strikeout potential and getting the batters to ground into outs, and that is what owners like to see. He is a pretty safe bet for owners to get his saves and to keep his job moving forward.
Cody Allen
2015 Prediction: ERA-2.30, WHIP-1.20, K-90, W-5, S-35
Cody Allen is another Indian that makes a top ten list, and, as with Kluber, for good reason. Allen has been a reliever for the Tribe for the last three seasons, and it was not until late last season. Still, he earned 24 saves for the team. Similar to Robertson in many respects with the White Sox, the Indians have improved, so the save opportunities should be pretty good for Allen.
Dellin Betances
2015 Predictions: ERA- 2.00, WHIP- 1.10, K-110, S-25
Betances has some amazing potential, but as a Yankee, he may not get that many opportunities for saves.,Who would have thought that anyone would say that about the Yankees? We all saw the amazing 135 strikeouts in 2014 and his fantastic 1.64 FIP, but regression is likely in both areas. While it is unlikely that he will just fall off the map, Betances will not likely get up to the ninety innings that allowed him to get as many strikeouts as he did last year. However, that does not mean he will be bad or get no strikeouts; after all, he managed a 2.40 BB/9 and allowed a miniscule 0.78 batting average. It should be noted that his velocity is down in spring, that low velocity should mean nothing since he had a similar velocity dip in 2014’s Spring Training. It is best, though, to play it safe.
Huston Street
2015 Prediction: ERA-1.80, WHIP-0.90, K-70, W-7, S-30
We all know what Huston Street is good for at this point, and this year should not be any different. Street does not strike out many batters and relies more on the defense behind him to get outs, but he does the job. As an Angel, he will get saves, and he does have a strong defense behind him. There is nothing flashy or sexy with this guy, but when it comes to closers, Street is solid. Owners could do a lot worse.