The Cleveland Indians were no doubt a pleasant surprise during the 2013 MLB campaign. The Tribe made a September surge, going 21-6 for the month and winning their final 10 regular season games to clinch an AL wildcard berth. Although the ensuing postseason party was abruptly halted by the Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland could nonetheless boast of its first postseason appearance since 2007.
However, can the Indians achieve similar success in 2014, or are they merely a sandlot-style version of a one hit wonder? Despite their late season success, they floundered all year versus top AL teams such as the Rays, the Boston Red Sox and their toughest AL Central Divsion rivals, the Detroit Tigers. In fact, the Tribe posted a dismal 4-15 record last season versus the men from Motown. The Tigers are expected to tame the division yet again for a fourth straight season, and the Kansas City Royals will also emerge as a force to contend with after beefing up their already talented roster during the offseason. Although neither of the division's other two teams, the Minnesota Twins nor the Chicago White Sox, should present too much of a challenge, the Indians are nonetheless in danger of regressing back to a barely subpar team in 2014, with dreams of back to back postseason trips quickly falling out of reach.
Pitching Is Shaky
Losing starters Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir to costless agency delivered a painful blow to Cleveland's pitching staff. The team's 3.13 overall ERA the second half of last season was second best in the AL, but that success will be tough to replpicate with two of the top starters having jumped ship. Justin Masterson is now the rotation's number one starter, but given the team's general unwillingness to spend big bucks to keep solid pitchers around (also note Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia in prior seasons), who knows how long Masterson will be around? In the meantime, the 29-year old right hander has developed one the the top sinking fastballs in all of MLB, and well over 70% of his outs last year came on ground balls. He achieved a career-best 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings and finished the season 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA. He registered a WHIP of 1.20, fairly average amongst aces in an MLB rotation.
Masterson could take his game to the next level in 2014 if he improves his strikeout to walk ratio and brings it above 3:1, in addition to trimming his ERA. On opening night Monday in Oakland, Masterson certainly looked like ace material, pitching seven scoreless innings, allowing only three hits while striking out four, helping the Indians to a 2-0 win over the A's.
As far as the rest of the rotation, the Indians will rely on their young hurlers to step up, specifically 24-year old Danny Salazar, set to make his season debut in Friday's home opener versus the Twins. Salazar was called up late last season from the minors and started 10 games, going 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA, striking out 65 batters in 52 innings of work (averaging out to 11.25 strikeouts per nine innings pitched), while wallking only 15 and registering an impressive WHIP of only 1.13 with a fastball that has at times been clocked at 100MPH. He can also easily fool opposing batters with his change up and off-speed pitch.
The rest of the Tribe's starting rotation is compried of Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister and Carlos Carrasco. Kluber, slated as the number two starter, had a breakout season in 2013 after a barely subpar campaign in 2012, putting up a strikeouts to walks ratio of over 4:1 while going 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA in 24 starts, completing just under 150 innings of work. McAllister, a 23-year old former Yankees prospect drafted right out of high school in 2006, stands a towering 6'6" and went 9-9 with a 3.75 ERA in 24 starts. He struggled with consistency throughout last season and had control problems with his fastball. Carrasco meanwhile, earned the rotation's final spot during Spring Training. He was called up from the minors last season and appeared in 15 games, making seven starts. Carrasco was roughed up during his first foray into major league play, registering an ERA just under seven and a WHIP of 1.76, all while working 46.2 innings and posting a 1-4 record. For the Indians to bring strong starting pitching to the table in 2014, Kluber must continue building off his impressive 2013 outing, Salazar needs to live up to expectations and both McAllister and Carrasco must both find their rhythm and overcome a lack of successful big league pitching experience thus far. If only half the rotation is solid and consistent, the Indians won't come close to repeating last year's success, and if the solid starters have problems staying healthy, the team is in dire trouble.
Uncertainties about the bullpen could have manager Terry Francona reaching for the Excedrin bottle on almost a nightly basis. The Indians eventually released slumping closer Chris Perez last season and experimented with both Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw, neither of whom showed they were fit for the job yet. Thus, the Indians signed John Axford, formerly of the Milwaukee Brewers, to a one-year deal and will see if he's able to get things job done with Allen and Shaw setting him up. They also acquired southpaw Josh Outman from Colorado this offseason to gain another lefty presence in the pen, joining Marc Rzepczynski, acquired in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals in the middle of last season. Only as the season progresses will Francona be able to gauge the degree of his bullpen's effectiveness. For now, things could easily go either way.
Where's The (Real) Power?
Though Cleveland can boast a few hitters who put up reliably consistent numbers each season, lack of a standout, game-changing slugger remains an issue. First baseman Nick Swisher's 22 home runs were most on the team in 2013, as were second baseman Jason Kipnis's 84 RBI's. Although these are not poor numbers, they probably expose a primary cause of the team's aformentioned difficulties competing with elite opponents. Lack of a hitter who can consistently belt over 30 home runs and/or drive in over 100 runs per season definitely puts the Tribe at a disadvantage. However, if one of the team's hitters can break out this season and reach elite slugger status, it could be an entirely different story. Carlos Santana might be precisely player able to light a spark in an otherwise average offense replete with "regular guys" who, while talented hitters, need to take their game to a higher level at the plate for their team to be competitive this season.
With Yan Gomes establishing himself behind the plate, Santana is expected to assume the designated hitter role (though his defensive versatility enables him to play at multiple positions) affording him more of a chance to focus on hitting for power. His .832 OPS was best on the team last season, yet still isn't great compared with power hitters league-wide, a sobering reality magnified by his disappointing .455 slugging percentage. In 541 total at bats, Santana hit 20 home runs, 39 doubles and a triple, hardly the numbers of an elite slugger. Although at this juncture it's unknown if he will ever reach his full potential, doing so could very well propel the Indians back into the playoffs. Someone needs to step up and become the type of batter who instills dread into opposing pitchers, and the Tribe's offensive success this season might just rest on the bat . . . held by Carlos Santana.
No September Cakewalk This Year
Down last season's successful stretch, Cleveland took full advantage of weak opponents and finished the year with an overall all 56-18 record against below .500 teams. However, the Tribe won't be so lucky this year if they're again jockeying for postseason position in the final month. This September, they will face the Detroit Tigers seven times and conclude the regular season with three game homestands with the Royals and Rays, both expected to be strong playoff contenders. This makes it all the more crucial for the Indians to find their rhythm as soon as possible and consistently play well-above .500 all season long. If they're trying to chase a playoff spot at the last minute this time around, it's likely that they will run out of gas and won't come close given a far more difficult final stretch.
Repeating last season's magic will be a daunting task for Francona's club. However, there are several pieces in place that, if they all coagulate together on a consistent basis in 2014, could enable to Tribe to show the skeptics that their 2013 success was no fluke.
Casey Gagnon is the Managing Editor at VAVEL USA. Feel costless to follow him onTwitter, Facebook and Google+