The 2013 MLB regular season finally came to an end earlier this week and now that we know all the results of the several play-in games the 2013 MLB Divisional series’ are underway. In the American League the Oakland Athletics are facing the Detroit Tigers while the Boston Red Sox square off in an AL east matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. Those same Rays just handled a series of 3 win or go home games in a row to find themselves up in Boston for Friday’s first pitch at 3:07pm to face the AL’s best team.  With first pitch looming here are 3 keys to this five game series pitting familiar foes against each other in a matchup of great starting pitching and timely hitting… in case you haven’t been following this team all season.

Tampa Bay’s starting pitching will decide how competitive they are in this series.  Although the Rays have already been in several playoff atmosphere’s this week they have needed to use their quality pitching just to get to this point. It would be fair to wonder how much magic they have left but with a rotation lead by last year’s CY Young winner David Price along with a couple other young phenom’s in Matt Moore (17-4, 3.29ERA, 1.30WHIP) and Alex Cobb (11-3, 2.76ERA, 1.15WHIP), the Rays have an advantage in frontline starters in this series. 

With the rotation set up for the Rays, David Price (10-7,3.33ERA,1.10WHIP) will pitch in the opener and once again be available for game 5 on regular rest should the series go that long. The same goes for Boston’s starter in game 1; Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75ERA, 1.29WHIP) as the two lefties hold the fate of the series in their hands.  John Lackey (161K’s, 3.52ERA, 1.16WHIP) will get the nod for Boston in game 2, and who would have ever thought that would happen? After a terrible start to his Boston career, the Sox most consistent pitcher this season will square off against either Cobb or likely Moore at Fenway, leaving Cobb to take the hill against the Red Sox pitcher with the best stuff; Clay Buccholz (12-1, 1.74ERA 1.02WHIP). The not so young anymore righty battled through another injury plagued season dealing with a neck injury. Despite missing three months, Clay’s stuff is nasty and after stretching his arm back out over the last three weeks of the season he is primed to deliver the stuff, now, in the postseason. Overall these three matchups are neck and neck on paper but where Boston may have an advantage is its fourth starter, Jake Peavy.  The veteran has been solid in his short Sox career after arriving via trade this season. What Peavy is known for though is being a big game pitcher and going in game 4 against one of the Rays starters on short rest or whoever they decide to trot out may actually give Boston a pitching advantage in the series, but the Rays do have more talented pitchers.

That talent will have their hands full with the deep and patient Red Sox lineup.  Sox batters saw more than 1,100 pitches than any other team in the majors this season. Because of the quantity of pitches, they tore the cover off the baseball as a collective lineup. The Sox hit 178 home runs while taking 581 walks and batting .277 as a team. They scored 853 runs thanks to having an On Base+Slugging percentage of .795. David Ortiz is still Big Papi hitting 30 of those homers and driving in over 100 runs, while Jacoby Ellsbury (.298,52 SB, 92R) is playing for a contract and Dustin Pedroia (.301, 84RBI, 91R) is living up to the one he signed.  Now include all the veteran leadership added this offseason in Shane Victorino, Johnny Gomes, and Mike Napoli mixed in with some savage beards and the Red Sox lineup is scary. They will need to methodically work those arms the Rays have and get into the Tampa bullpen which brings some serious heat with Fernando Rodney and Jacob McGee but not much beyond that. The Rays counter with a small ball lineup with timely hitting. Evan Longoria (32HR, 88RBI) is the Rays best hitter and has some help from rookie Will Myers (13HR, 52RBI) but after that James Loney is the best of what’s left and after last year’s mega trade Red Sox fans know it’s not much.

Depth in their lineup and in the bullpen is however a strength of the Boston Red Sox and they definitely have the better closer; Koji Uehara. The high-fiving samurai landed the closer role by default mid season after several failed attempts with other pitchers. What Koji went on to do as the closer was historic. His final numbers weren’t but his run and impact was. Koji finished with 21 saves and 74.1 innings pitched, he struck out 101 batters while walking only 9 and giving up just 33 hits which lead to his minuscule ERA of 1.09 and a WHIP of 0.57. At one point Koji had gone over 30 scoreless innings and was getting 3 outs in the 9th on what seemed like 5 pitches max. The enthusiastic closer gives Boston a distinct edge in perhaps the most important role in the postseason and that is why the Boston Red Sox will win this series 3-1.

Boston’s overall depth and significant advantage in the lineups makes this series seem unbalanced.  Yet you would be hard pressed to find any fans who wanted to face the Rays this early. I wanted to beat up on the Indians and Terry Francona but the Rays deserve to be here and that is what makes them dangerous. A week off for the Sox and important games for the Rays may allow Tampa to get out to a quick lead in the series but in the end the better team will prevail.