2015 Oscar Predictions

For film buffs across the world, one of the highlights is watching their favorite performers and movies of the past year go head-to-head at the most prestigious award ceremony, the Oscars. As in year’s past, this author fills out an Oscar ballot featuring in-depth analysis and personal insight in an effort to show who will win and who should win. 2014 has been another fantastic year in cinema so without further adieu, here are the predictions.

Best Picture

The Imitation Game

“The Imitation Game” is a fascinating, intellectual war drama and character study. It is well-crafted featuring brilliant production design and keen eye for the details of the period. Eschewing traditional narrative, it seamlessly integrates and balances time periods of Turing’s youth and his work during the war as well as his arrest in the early fifties. However, the subtle Benedict Cumberbatch is what makes the film stand out as he infuses the character with a meticulous blend of confidence, rigidity and sorrow. Cumberbatch plays fiercely brilliant logistician Alan Turing, who was called upon in WWII to crack the German Enigma code. Turing immediately puts off colleagues with his arrogance and only Joan Clarke respects his perspective and with her help, he is able to get the establishment to look beyond conventional methods and crack the code. For his extraordinary work, he was arrested in 1952 for gross indecency and chemically castrated. It's a compelling and tragic story, a story of triumph and prejudice.

American Sniper 

The action scenes are harrowing, well-timed and sustain tension established from the very beginning of the movie when Kyle has to make an excruciating split-second decision whether or not to shoot a child with a grenade in his hand that could easily wipe out the whole convoy. Bradley Cooper, who has given excellent performances in the past (“Silver Linings Playbook”, “American Hustle”), delivers an engrossing, moving portrayal of Chris Kyle as a strong, yet complex hero. He impeccably embodied the character as he gained 30 pounds of muscle, added a thick, Texas accent and showed the inner-turmoil of Kyle as deals with the intensity of the battlefield and hiding his emotions at home. In wartime, he was a precise marksman, addicted to the thrill of battle and at home, he was a vulnerable shell of a man, driven by his desperate need to serve his country in spite of the rifts it causes. Eastwood engages the audience with a complex, gripping shot of what war can do to those who fight it and are surrounded by it.

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Wes Anderson's movies have always been unique with quirky, eccentric characters and surreal surroundings. "The Grand Budapest Hotel" is no exception as it possesses all the attributes that make Anderson beloved by his admirers and disliked by those who find his films pretentious and complex. With unending charisma and a distinctive mustache, Ralph Fiennes plays the role of M. Gustave, an immaculately dressed, refined concierge at an illustrious hotel in the fictional Republic of Zubrowka. The eccentric Gustave, a lover of poetry and elderly women, may come off as a sophisticated gentleman and yet amuses audiences with his out of character bursts of profanity. After one of his favorite elderly female guests dies and leaves him a priceless painting, countless absurdities ensue from stealing and murder to imprisonment and unforgettable getaways. Also, the cinematography is superb as each of the story’s timeframes are filmed in different aspect ratios from variations of widescreen for the modern scenes and the traditional 1:33 for the 30s.

Whiplash

"Whiplash" is an exhilarating thrill ride from start to finish, an intense musical story of obsession, drive and inner turmoil built on two superior performances. Simmons is brilliant as the dictatorial and demeaning jazz band director Terrance Fletcher, and hasn't been this riveting since he was a white supremacist Vernon Schillinger in the HBO series "Oz." The early rehearsal scenes are gripping and tensely portrayed as Fletcher deliberately demands flawless execution, berating any and all who make a mistake and even those who don’t. The musical performances in the film are always compelling, and drive the drama forward to a large extent. A movie you feel as much as you see and director Chazelle shows music is very much a physical endeavor as Andrew literally sheds blood, sweat and tears in his pursuit of musical perfection. The question Chazelle poses is whether psychological torture is worth the price and does it take emotional, physical extremes to push people to reach extraordinary heights?

Boyhood

Filmed over 12 years in 40 days, the movie focuses on one family’s journey through life as they encounter everything a family can go through from love and marriage to pain and divorce. The audience feels like its peering through a window and viewing the intimate details of their lives. The story isn't particularly dramatic or centered around traumatic events. Instead, its strength lies in its simplicity and reminds us that life is a collection of small, mundane moments that can stick with us forever and have the most emotional value. The movie is a prime example that sometimes the simplest stories can be the most moving because they're so easy to relate to. Shot in 35mm format, the movie feels like a documentary and sometimes scripted, line readings sound forced but the catch is that everything comes together seamlessly with Linklater’s realistic style.      

Selma

Selma is a sharply acted, vivid biopic with a superbly researched, elegant script by Paul Webb that gives the audience a powerful reminder of what MLK did for this country and what still needs to be done in America regarding civil rights. David Oyelowo’s mesmerizing performance is soulful and stirring, not only mimicking MLK’s oratories and mannerisms but capturing his unyielding drive and determination. The audience also gets a rich, intimate portrait of King as a true man – one who has self-doubts, insecurities and purpose. Director Ava DuVernay does an exceptional job humanizing and bringing to life the riveting, horrific events of 1965 like Bloody Sunday, making Selma one of the most intimate, visceral depictions of the civil rights movement. 

Birdman

“Birdman” is a witty, ingenious, and raw film packed with enough creative twists to keep the audience enthralled with its intimate look at the fractured and fragile psyche of a fallen Hollywood star. In his most prominent role in years, Michael Keaton showcases untapped depth and diversity as the  fictional Riggan Thompson. The script is impeccable and the stellar cast is flawless as the actors exhibit their talents in their deep, multi-dimensional characters.  In particular, Norton and Stone give outstanding performances, capturing the absurdity and quirks in human behavior. Also, acquiring the incredibly talented Emmanuel Lubezki was a stroke of genius. Racing down narrow hallways and upstairs to find another dramatic moment, the film is miraculously made to look like it was one continuous take even though it’s not. The best treat of the film though is Grammy-winning jazz drummer Antonio Sanchez’s almost exclusively percussive jazz score which enriches the film without distracting from the action.   

The Theory of Everything

The Theory of Everything is not only an exquisite portrait of astrophysicist Stephen Hawking and his unrelenting drive to succeed but focuses on the contentious relationship between him and Jane. Filled with youth and promise, Hawking was diagnosed at 21 with the motor neuron disease that would take away essentially all voluntary movement. To show this, Redmayne underwent a drastic transformation and dieted to the brink of starvation to play the scrawny Hawking. As the disease progresses and Hawking can no longer speak or is able to rely on facial expressions, Redmayne still conveys hisc incredible brilliance and his unbroken spirit. Resembling Daniel Day Lewis in My Left Foot, Redmayne’s performance is mesmerizing, empathetic and heartfelt. Jones is just as good with a truly humanized, flawed character instead of one that is always seen in a positive light for supporting her husband and children.   

Who Will Win: Boyhood

Who Should Win:  Birdman

While Boyhood is considered a cinematic landmark achievement and has won countless critics awards and the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture Drama, Birdman is a cinematographic masterpiece and swept the top honors from the Producers Guild of America, Screen Actors Guild(SAG) and finally, the Directors Guild of America(DGA.) Those three awards almost always forecast victory in the Best Picture Oscar race but it will go to the film that critics feel is an innovating, visceral journey even though this author feels Boyhood is over-hyped.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper – American Sniper

Michael Keaton – Birdman

Eddie RedMayne – The Theory of Everything

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game

Steve Carell – Foxcatcher

Who Will Win: Eddie RedMayne

Who Should Win: Michael Keaton

From Dustin Hoffman to Daniel Day-Lewis, the Academy loves transformative performances that deal with disease or disability. RedMayne goes above and beyond from contorting his body in a wheelchair to using Hawkings own voice synthesizer. However, Michael Keatons resurgent role deserves the accolades and delivers a rich experience that’s even more complex in many sensual ways that can’t be measured. Keaton received the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Motion Picture Comedy or Musical but lost the SAG to Redmayne and will come up short on Sunday.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall – The Judge

Ethan Hawke – Boyhood

J.K. Simmons – Whiplash

Edward Norton – Birdman

Mark  Ruffalo – Foxcatcher

Who Will/Should Win: J.K. Simmons

He is favored to win this year having already won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, Screen Actors Guild Award and the Critics' Choice Movie Award for Best Supporting Actor. Simmons keeps viewers on the edge with his foul mouthed yet intimidating presence, creating palpable tension with the audience as much as he does with Andrew (Miles Teller) when he has few words of encouragement or shows any side of gentleness.

Best Director

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu – Birdman

Richard Linklater – Boyhood

Wes Anderson – Grand Budapest Hotel

Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher

Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

Who Will/Should Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu

Richard Linklater won for directing at the Golden Globe and British Academy Film Awards but Inarritu nabbed the DGA and the winner takes the Oscar virtually almost all of the time. Yes, critics have essentially agreed that Linklater’s bold, audacious odyssey was wildly successful and deserves to be recognized but Birdman is the better film- which this author definitely believes.

 Best Actress

Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl

Julianne Moore – Still Alice

Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night

Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything

Who Will/Should Win: Julianne Moore

Julianne Moore was a double-nominee for Best Actress in “Far from Heaven” and Best Supporting Actress in “The Hours” 12 years ago. She lost both categories but she will finally get her shining moment on Sunday. As a 50-year-old linguistics professor diagnosed with early onset Alzheimer’s disease, Moore delivers a powerful performance that leaves audiences emotionally spent. Winning the Golden Globe and SAG awards, she is also highly respected in the industry and considered seriously long overdue for her contributions.  

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette – Boyhood

Emma Stone – Birdman

Laura Dern – Wild

Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game

Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

Who Will/Should Win: Patricia Arquette

Patricia Arquette delivers a natural, heartbreaking performance as a struggling single mother, who always seems to come up short. She’s already won critics’ awards, the Golden Globe, and, most crucially, the SAG prize making this category hers to lose.

Best Original Screenplay

Alejandro G. Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris & Armando Bo – Birdman

Richard Linklater – Boyhood

E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman – Foxcatcher

Wes Anderson - The Grand Budapest Hotel

Dan Gilroy – Nightcrawler

Who Will Win: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Who Should Win: Inarritu and company (Birdman)

If recent films that have won in this category like “Little Miss Sunshine”, “Midnight in Paris”, and “Her” are any indication, the Original Screenplay award will go to the film that is the most clever, unique and colorful. "The Grand Budapest Hotel" has been one of the front-runners in this category for a while, especially after it won the BAFTA and the Writers Guild of America.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jason Hall – American Sniper

Graham Moore – The Imitation Game

Paul Thomas Anderson – Inherent Vice

Anthony McCarten – The Theory of everything

Damien Chazelle – Whiplash

Who Will Win: Graham Moore (The Imitation Game)

Who Should win: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

It is one of the toughest categories to choose as anyone but Paul Thomas Anderson could easily win. The Imitation Game is seen as the frontrunner as it nabbed the WGA but Theory surprised at the BAFTA’s. Also, lurking closely behind is the semi-autobiographical "Whiplash", which probably has a better chance in the adapted category as opposed to the original category, but it's still probably going to come up short.

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6

The Boxtrolls

How To Train Your Dragon 2

Song of the Sea

The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Who Will/Should Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Golden Globe winner "How To Train Your Dragon 2,"is the frontrunner but only one sequel has ever won this award when "Toy Story 3" did in 2010, and that film was one of the most successful animated franchises. "Dragon 2" was a subpar film. Even so, it should pull off the victory.

Best Documentary Feature

CitizenFour

Finding Vivian Maier

Last Days in Vietnam

The Salt of the Earth

Who Will Win: CitizenFour

Who Should Win: CitizenFour

While all the documentaries covered fascinating subject matters, Laura Poitras Citizenfour was the most riveting and globally-relevant film about a very reclusive, polarizing Edward Snowden. Don’t see anything else topping that.

Best Foreign Language Film

Ida

Leviathan

Tangerines

Timbuktu

Wild Tales

Who Will Win: Ida

Who Should win: Leviathan

Ida is the front runner and is also nominated in the cinematography group but Golden Globe winner "Leviathan" is the most compelling out of the group.

Best Score

Alexandre Desplat - The Grand Budapest Hotel

Alexandre Desplat - The Imitation Game

Hans Zimmer – Interstellar

Gary Yershon – Mr. Turner

Johann Johannson – The Theory of Everything

Who Will Win: Johann Johannson (The Theory of Everything)

Who Should Win: Alexandre Desplat (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Will Jóhann Jóhannsson give Alexandre Desplat his eighth Oscar loss in 9 years? The Golden Globes selected Jóhannsson for his beautiful "Theory of Everything" score, and that will be the case Sunday as Johannson wins.

Best Song

Glory – Selma

Everything is Awesome – The Lego Movie

Grateful – Beyond the Lights

I;m Not Gonna Miss You – Glen Campbell I’ll Be Me

Lost Stars – Begin Again

Who Will Win: Glory

Who Should Win: Glory

The primary chance for Oscar voters to reward Selma though "Everything is Awesome" and "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" have chances.

Best Cinematography

Emmanuel Lubezki – Birdman

Robert Yeoman – The Grand Budapest Hotel

Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski - Ida

Dick Pope – Mr. Turner

Roger Desline – Unbroken

Who Will Win/Who Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)

 How did he make it look like one continuous shot?

Best Visual Effects

Xmen: Days of Future Past

Interstellar

Guardians of the Galaxy

Captain Aerica: The winter Solider

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Who Will/Should Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

"Interstellar" is narrowly the favorite here, but "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" had some sick looking apes with incredible detail

Best Production Design

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Mr. Turner

Intersetellar

Who Will/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Incredible job transforming a defunct German department store into the illustrious hotel.

Best Costume Design

Grand Budapest Hotel

Inherent Vice

Into the Woods

Maleficent

Mr. Turner

Who Will/Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Colorful, diverse outfits throughout the film though Into the Woods could get the W.

Best Makeup & Hairstyle

Foxcatcher

Grand Budapest Hotel

Guardians of the Galaxy

Who Will/Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Any can win but this author thinks The Grand Budapest Hotel nabs this category.

Document short

Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Joanna

Our Curse

The Reaper

White Earth

Who Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Who Should Win: Joanna

It hits closest to home as it’s about veterans and PTSD but its hard to vote against Joanna, a woman dying of cancer who is writing about her last days for her young son, Jas.

Best Film Editing

Boyhood

Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

American Sniper

Whiiplash

Who Will Win: Boyhood

Who Should Win: Whiplash

Whiplash is the most exhilaratingly edited that won the BAFTA but Boyhood took the top editing award.

Best Sound Editing

American Sniper

Birdman

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Unbroken

Interstellar

Who Will Win: American Sniper

Who Should Win: Birdman

Its American Snipers to lose but Birdman was so clever and nuanced regarding sound.

Best Sound Editing

American Sniper

Birdman

Interstellar

Unbroken

Whiplash
Who Will/Should Win: Whiplash

Whiplash stands out as it’s the most musically driven.

Best Short Film

Boogaloo and Graham

Aya

Parvenah

Butter Lamp

The Phone Call

Who Should/Will Win: Parvenah

With Oscar nominee Sally Hawkins and Oscar-winner Jim Broadbent, The Phone Call has star power but Parvenah is a better story as it centers on an Afghan girl befriending a Swiss girl who helps her on her way.

Best Animated Short

The Bigger Picture

The Dam Keeper

Feast

Me & My Moulton

A Single Life

Who Will Win: Feast

Who Should Win: The Bigger Picture

Going with Disneys cute Feast, though the Bigger Picture is the most ambitious film as it utilizes 2-D characters and won the BAFTA.

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